Jobs
Do we still need people to write software?
Contributes to: Are fewer people needed?. Signal score: 26 / 100. Relative weight within this question: 1.
StatusRecovering
Latest value80.8
Year over year+24%
Distance from high-65%
Observed trend
Indeed index for US software postings, February 1, 2020 = 100, against the federal funds rate. Both are monthly.
Indeed index for US software postings, February 1, 2020 = 100, against the federal funds rate. Both are monthly. · 2020-02-01 – 2026-10-23
Solid: Indeed index for US software postings, February 1, 2020 = 100, against the federal funds rate. Both are monthly.. Dashed: Federal funds rate (%, right scale).
First rate riseChatGPT
Milestones provide timing context, not evidence of causation.
View data table
| Period / observation | Indeed index for US software postings, February 1, 2020 = 100, against the federal funds rate. Both are monthly. | Federal funds rate |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-01 | 100 | 1.58 |
| 2020-03-01 | 100.09 | 0.65 |
| 2020-04-01 | 86.78 | 0.05 |
| 2020-05-01 | 70.29 | 0.05 |
| 2020-06-01 | 64.83 | 0.08 |
| 2020-07-01 | 65.37 | 0.09 |
| 2020-08-01 | 69.11 | 0.1 |
| 2020-09-01 | 70.99 | 0.09 |
| 2020-10-01 | 75 | 0.09 |
| 2020-11-01 | 80.76 | 0.09 |
| 2020-12-01 | 87.86 | 0.09 |
| 2021-01-01 | 91.27 | 0.09 |
| 2021-02-01 | 98.02 | 0.08 |
| 2021-03-01 | 107.84 | 0.07 |
| 2021-04-01 | 116.89 | 0.07 |
| 2021-05-01 | 125.62 | 0.06 |
| 2021-06-01 | 134 | 0.08 |
| 2021-07-01 | 141.2 | 0.1 |
| 2021-08-01 | 151.03 | 0.09 |
| 2021-09-01 | 169.71 | 0.08 |
| 2021-10-01 | 178.95 | 0.08 |
| 2021-11-01 | 193.74 | 0.08 |
| 2021-12-01 | 209.81 | 0.08 |
| 2022-01-01 | 212.98 | 0.08 |
| 2022-02-01 | 225.14 | 0.08 |
| 2022-03-01 | 233.52 | 0.2 |
| 2022-04-01 | 225.61 | 0.33 |
| 2022-05-01 | 223.46 | 0.77 |
| 2022-06-01 | 224.85 | 1.21 |
| 2022-07-01 | 211.27 | 1.68 |
| 2022-08-01 | 194.16 | 2.33 |
| 2022-09-01 | 180.29 | 2.56 |
| 2022-10-01 | 168.08 | 3.08 |
| 2022-11-01 | 155.07 | 3.78 |
| 2022-12-01 | 142.35 | 4.1 |
| 2023-01-01 | 130.27 | 4.33 |
| 2023-02-01 | 121.15 | 4.57 |
| 2023-03-01 | 105.95 | 4.65 |
| 2023-04-01 | 99.5 | 4.83 |
| 2023-05-01 | 98.19 | 5.06 |
| 2023-06-01 | 94.03 | 5.08 |
| 2023-07-01 | 82.6 | 5.12 |
| 2023-08-01 | 81.51 | 5.33 |
| 2023-09-01 | 78.64 | 5.33 |
| 2023-10-01 | 75.09 | 5.33 |
| 2023-11-01 | 74.16 | 5.33 |
| 2023-12-01 | 72.44 | 5.33 |
| 2024-01-01 | 72.58 | 5.33 |
| 2024-02-01 | 71.09 | 5.33 |
| 2024-03-01 | 70.82 | 5.33 |
| 2024-04-01 | 70.7 | 5.33 |
| 2024-05-01 | 69.21 | 5.33 |
| 2024-06-01 | 70.15 | 5.33 |
| 2024-07-01 | 70.08 | 5.33 |
| 2024-08-01 | 69.73 | 5.33 |
| 2024-09-01 | 68.56 | 5.13 |
| 2024-10-01 | 69.19 | 4.83 |
| 2024-11-01 | 68.58 | 4.64 |
| 2024-12-01 | 67.45 | 4.48 |
| 2025-01-01 | 67.52 | 4.33 |
| 2025-02-01 | 66.78 | 4.33 |
| 2025-03-01 | 62.58 | 4.33 |
| 2025-04-01 | 62.57 | 4.33 |
| 2025-05-01 | 63.19 | 4.33 |
| 2025-06-01 | 64.08 | 4.33 |
| 2025-07-01 | 65.35 | 4.33 |
| 2025-08-01 | 66.19 | 4.33 |
| 2025-09-01 | 65.02 | 4.22 |
| 2025-10-01 | 64.28 | 4.09 |
| 2025-11-01 | 65.78 | 3.88 |
| 2025-12-01 | 66.64 | 3.72 |
| 2026-01-01 | 67.21 | 3.64 |
| 2026-02-01 | 69.41 | 3.64 |
| 2026-03-01 | 70.71 | 3.64 |
| 2026-04-01 | 72.76 | 3.64 |
| 2026-05-01 | 72.94 | 3.63 |
| 2026-06-01 | 73.41 | 3.63 |
| 2026-07-01 | 73.46 | 3.63 |
| 2026-08-01 | 75.15 | 3.63 |
| 2026-09-01 | 74.87 | 3.75 |
| 2026-10-23 | 80.8 | No observation |
What it measures
- Metric
- US software postings on Indeed (Feb 2020 = 100)
- Solved if
- Demand for engineers keeps falling
- Signal score
- 26 / 100. Software postings have lost 26% against all US postings since ChatGPT launched. How it is scored
- Status rule
- Recovering when postings rise over the year. Falling postings move toward solved.
Is it AI or interest rates?
It is too early to tell. The timing leaves room for an AI turning point, but rates and the wider economy could explain the fall on their own.
- Postings peaked at 233.8 on Feb 28, 2022, weeks before the Federal Reserve began raising rates. The rate went from 0.08% to 5.33% by August 2023, which made it more expensive for companies to fund growth.
- ChatGPT came out on Nov 30, 2022. By then postings were already 39% below their peak, so AI tools cannot explain that part of the fall.
- On that day, software and all US postings were about level, at 142.5 and 146.7. Today software is 22% behind, at 80.8 against 103.7. AI could be part of that gap, but so could rates hitting software harder.
- Postings kept falling after rates came down, to a low of 61.1 on May 17, 2025. They have since risen 32%, against -2% for all US postings, so the link to rates is not simple.
- Other causes overlap. Companies hired heavily during the pandemic, and from 2022 to 2024 a US tax rule made them spread software development costs over five years. A 2025 law restored immediate deductions for US development.
- Recent graduates feel it more. Unemployment is 7.0% for computer science and 7.8% for computer engineering, against 4.2% for all majors, per the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That is one year of data, so it does not show a trend and does not affect the score.
Update history
The reading on each date we checked, separate from the historical observations above.
| Date | Value | Year over year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | 80.8 | +24% | Recovering |
| 2026-11-01 | 80.8 | +24% | Recovering |
Sources
| Source | Role | Measures | Latest data |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Bureau of Labor Statistics | Supporting context | People employed as software developers in the US | May 2025 |
| Federal funds rate | Scored measurement | Federal funds effective rate, monthly | 2026-09 |
| Indeed Hiring Lab | Scored measurement | Software development job postings by country | Oct 23, 2026 |
| New York Fed recent graduates data | Scored measurement | Unemployment among recent graduates, by major | 2026 release |