{
  "notice": "Please credit \"Is software solved?\" and the sources listed in credits when you reuse these numbers. They are our own aggregates. For original records, go to each source.",
  "id": "jobs",
  "name": "Jobs",
  "question": "Do we still need people to write software?",
  "metric": "US software postings on Indeed (Feb 2020 = 100)",
  "solvedIf": "Demand for engineers keeps falling",
  "value": "80.8",
  "change": "+24%",
  "trend": [
    {
      "label": "2020-02-01",
      "value": 100
    },
    {
      "label": "2020-03-01",
      "value": 100.09
    },
    {
      "label": "2020-04-01",
      "value": 86.78
    },
    {
      "label": "2020-05-01",
      "value": 70.29
    },
    {
      "label": "2020-06-01",
      "value": 64.83
    },
    {
      "label": "2020-07-01",
      "value": 65.37
    },
    {
      "label": "2020-08-01",
      "value": 69.11
    },
    {
      "label": "2020-09-01",
      "value": 70.99
    },
    {
      "label": "2020-10-01",
      "value": 75
    },
    {
      "label": "2020-11-01",
      "value": 80.76
    },
    {
      "label": "2020-12-01",
      "value": 87.86
    },
    {
      "label": "2021-01-01",
      "value": 91.27
    },
    {
      "label": "2021-02-01",
      "value": 98.02
    },
    {
      "label": "2021-03-01",
      "value": 107.84
    },
    {
      "label": "2021-04-01",
      "value": 116.89
    },
    {
      "label": "2021-05-01",
      "value": 125.62
    },
    {
      "label": "2021-06-01",
      "value": 134
    },
    {
      "label": "2021-07-01",
      "value": 141.2
    },
    {
      "label": "2021-08-01",
      "value": 151.03
    },
    {
      "label": "2021-09-01",
      "value": 169.71
    },
    {
      "label": "2021-10-01",
      "value": 178.95
    },
    {
      "label": "2021-11-01",
      "value": 193.74
    },
    {
      "label": "2021-12-01",
      "value": 209.81
    },
    {
      "label": "2022-01-01",
      "value": 212.98
    },
    {
      "label": "2022-02-01",
      "value": 225.14
    },
    {
      "label": "2022-03-01",
      "value": 233.52
    },
    {
      "label": "2022-04-01",
      "value": 225.61
    },
    {
      "label": "2022-05-01",
      "value": 223.46
    },
    {
      "label": "2022-06-01",
      "value": 224.85
    },
    {
      "label": "2022-07-01",
      "value": 211.27
    },
    {
      "label": "2022-08-01",
      "value": 194.16
    },
    {
      "label": "2022-09-01",
      "value": 180.29
    },
    {
      "label": "2022-10-01",
      "value": 168.08
    },
    {
      "label": "2022-11-01",
      "value": 155.07
    },
    {
      "label": "2022-12-01",
      "value": 142.35
    },
    {
      "label": "2023-01-01",
      "value": 130.27
    },
    {
      "label": "2023-02-01",
      "value": 121.15
    },
    {
      "label": "2023-03-01",
      "value": 105.95
    },
    {
      "label": "2023-04-01",
      "value": 99.5
    },
    {
      "label": "2023-05-01",
      "value": 98.19
    },
    {
      "label": "2023-06-01",
      "value": 94.03
    },
    {
      "label": "2023-07-01",
      "value": 82.6
    },
    {
      "label": "2023-08-01",
      "value": 81.51
    },
    {
      "label": "2023-09-01",
      "value": 78.64
    },
    {
      "label": "2023-10-01",
      "value": 75.09
    },
    {
      "label": "2023-11-01",
      "value": 74.16
    },
    {
      "label": "2023-12-01",
      "value": 72.44
    },
    {
      "label": "2024-01-01",
      "value": 72.58
    },
    {
      "label": "2024-02-01",
      "value": 71.09
    },
    {
      "label": "2024-03-01",
      "value": 70.82
    },
    {
      "label": "2024-04-01",
      "value": 70.7
    },
    {
      "label": "2024-05-01",
      "value": 69.21
    },
    {
      "label": "2024-06-01",
      "value": 70.15
    },
    {
      "label": "2024-07-01",
      "value": 70.08
    },
    {
      "label": "2024-08-01",
      "value": 69.73
    },
    {
      "label": "2024-09-01",
      "value": 68.56
    },
    {
      "label": "2024-10-01",
      "value": 69.19
    },
    {
      "label": "2024-11-01",
      "value": 68.58
    },
    {
      "label": "2024-12-01",
      "value": 67.45
    },
    {
      "label": "2025-01-01",
      "value": 67.52
    },
    {
      "label": "2025-02-01",
      "value": 66.78
    },
    {
      "label": "2025-03-01",
      "value": 62.58
    },
    {
      "label": "2025-04-01",
      "value": 62.57
    },
    {
      "label": "2025-05-01",
      "value": 63.19
    },
    {
      "label": "2025-06-01",
      "value": 64.08
    },
    {
      "label": "2025-07-01",
      "value": 65.35
    },
    {
      "label": "2025-08-01",
      "value": 66.19
    },
    {
      "label": "2025-09-01",
      "value": 65.02
    },
    {
      "label": "2025-10-01",
      "value": 64.28
    },
    {
      "label": "2025-11-01",
      "value": 65.78
    },
    {
      "label": "2025-12-01",
      "value": 66.64
    },
    {
      "label": "2026-01-01",
      "value": 67.21
    },
    {
      "label": "2026-02-01",
      "value": 69.41
    },
    {
      "label": "2026-03-01",
      "value": 70.71
    },
    {
      "label": "2026-04-01",
      "value": 72.76
    },
    {
      "label": "2026-05-01",
      "value": 72.94
    },
    {
      "label": "2026-06-01",
      "value": 73.41
    },
    {
      "label": "2026-07-01",
      "value": 73.46
    },
    {
      "label": "2026-08-01",
      "value": 75.15
    },
    {
      "label": "2026-09-01",
      "value": 74.87
    },
    {
      "label": "2026-10-23",
      "value": 80.8
    }
  ],
  "trendLabel": "Indeed index for US software postings, February 1, 2020 = 100, against the federal funds rate. Both are monthly.",
  "score": 26,
  "scoreReason": "Software postings have lost 26% against all US postings since ChatGPT launched.",
  "comparison": {
    "name": "Federal funds rate",
    "trend": [
      {
        "label": "2020-02-01",
        "value": 1.58
      },
      {
        "label": "2020-03-01",
        "value": 0.65
      },
      {
        "label": "2020-04-01",
        "value": 0.05
      },
      {
        "label": "2020-05-01",
        "value": 0.05
      },
      {
        "label": "2020-06-01",
        "value": 0.08
      },
      {
        "label": "2020-07-01",
        "value": 0.09
      },
      {
        "label": "2020-08-01",
        "value": 0.1
      },
      {
        "label": "2020-09-01",
        "value": 0.09
      },
      {
        "label": "2020-10-01",
        "value": 0.09
      },
      {
        "label": "2020-11-01",
        "value": 0.09
      },
      {
        "label": "2020-12-01",
        "value": 0.09
      },
      {
        "label": "2021-01-01",
        "value": 0.09
      },
      {
        "label": "2021-02-01",
        "value": 0.08
      },
      {
        "label": "2021-03-01",
        "value": 0.07
      },
      {
        "label": "2021-04-01",
        "value": 0.07
      },
      {
        "label": "2021-05-01",
        "value": 0.06
      },
      {
        "label": "2021-06-01",
        "value": 0.08
      },
      {
        "label": "2021-07-01",
        "value": 0.1
      },
      {
        "label": "2021-08-01",
        "value": 0.09
      },
      {
        "label": "2021-09-01",
        "value": 0.08
      },
      {
        "label": "2021-10-01",
        "value": 0.08
      },
      {
        "label": "2021-11-01",
        "value": 0.08
      },
      {
        "label": "2021-12-01",
        "value": 0.08
      },
      {
        "label": "2022-01-01",
        "value": 0.08
      },
      {
        "label": "2022-02-01",
        "value": 0.08
      },
      {
        "label": "2022-03-01",
        "value": 0.2
      },
      {
        "label": "2022-04-01",
        "value": 0.33
      },
      {
        "label": "2022-05-01",
        "value": 0.77
      },
      {
        "label": "2022-06-01",
        "value": 1.21
      },
      {
        "label": "2022-07-01",
        "value": 1.68
      },
      {
        "label": "2022-08-01",
        "value": 2.33
      },
      {
        "label": "2022-09-01",
        "value": 2.56
      },
      {
        "label": "2022-10-01",
        "value": 3.08
      },
      {
        "label": "2022-11-01",
        "value": 3.78
      },
      {
        "label": "2022-12-01",
        "value": 4.1
      },
      {
        "label": "2023-01-01",
        "value": 4.33
      },
      {
        "label": "2023-02-01",
        "value": 4.57
      },
      {
        "label": "2023-03-01",
        "value": 4.65
      },
      {
        "label": "2023-04-01",
        "value": 4.83
      },
      {
        "label": "2023-05-01",
        "value": 5.06
      },
      {
        "label": "2023-06-01",
        "value": 5.08
      },
      {
        "label": "2023-07-01",
        "value": 5.12
      },
      {
        "label": "2023-08-01",
        "value": 5.33
      },
      {
        "label": "2023-09-01",
        "value": 5.33
      },
      {
        "label": "2023-10-01",
        "value": 5.33
      },
      {
        "label": "2023-11-01",
        "value": 5.33
      },
      {
        "label": "2023-12-01",
        "value": 5.33
      },
      {
        "label": "2024-01-01",
        "value": 5.33
      },
      {
        "label": "2024-02-01",
        "value": 5.33
      },
      {
        "label": "2024-03-01",
        "value": 5.33
      },
      {
        "label": "2024-04-01",
        "value": 5.33
      },
      {
        "label": "2024-05-01",
        "value": 5.33
      },
      {
        "label": "2024-06-01",
        "value": 5.33
      },
      {
        "label": "2024-07-01",
        "value": 5.33
      },
      {
        "label": "2024-08-01",
        "value": 5.33
      },
      {
        "label": "2024-09-01",
        "value": 5.13
      },
      {
        "label": "2024-10-01",
        "value": 4.83
      },
      {
        "label": "2024-11-01",
        "value": 4.64
      },
      {
        "label": "2024-12-01",
        "value": 4.48
      },
      {
        "label": "2025-01-01",
        "value": 4.33
      },
      {
        "label": "2025-02-01",
        "value": 4.33
      },
      {
        "label": "2025-03-01",
        "value": 4.33
      },
      {
        "label": "2025-04-01",
        "value": 4.33
      },
      {
        "label": "2025-05-01",
        "value": 4.33
      },
      {
        "label": "2025-06-01",
        "value": 4.33
      },
      {
        "label": "2025-07-01",
        "value": 4.33
      },
      {
        "label": "2025-08-01",
        "value": 4.33
      },
      {
        "label": "2025-09-01",
        "value": 4.22
      },
      {
        "label": "2025-10-01",
        "value": 4.09
      },
      {
        "label": "2025-11-01",
        "value": 3.88
      },
      {
        "label": "2025-12-01",
        "value": 3.72
      },
      {
        "label": "2026-01-01",
        "value": 3.64
      },
      {
        "label": "2026-02-01",
        "value": 3.64
      },
      {
        "label": "2026-03-01",
        "value": 3.64
      },
      {
        "label": "2026-04-01",
        "value": 3.64
      },
      {
        "label": "2026-05-01",
        "value": 3.63
      },
      {
        "label": "2026-06-01",
        "value": 3.63
      },
      {
        "label": "2026-07-01",
        "value": 3.63
      },
      {
        "label": "2026-08-01",
        "value": 3.63
      },
      {
        "label": "2026-09-01",
        "value": 3.75
      }
    ]
  },
  "events": [
    {
      "month": "2022-03",
      "label": "First rate rise"
    },
    {
      "month": "2022-11",
      "label": "ChatGPT"
    }
  ],
  "analysis": {
    "title": "Is it AI or interest rates?",
    "intro": "It is too early to tell. The timing leaves room for an AI turning point, but rates and the wider economy could explain the fall on their own.",
    "points": [
      "Postings peaked at 233.8 on Feb 28, 2022, weeks before the Federal Reserve began raising rates. The rate went from 0.08% to 5.33% by August 2023, which made it more expensive for companies to fund growth.",
      "ChatGPT came out on Nov 30, 2022. By then postings were already 39% below their peak, so AI tools cannot explain that part of the fall.",
      "On that day, software and all US postings were about level, at 142.5 and 146.7. Today software is 22% behind, at 80.8 against 103.7. AI could be part of that gap, but so could rates hitting software harder.",
      "Postings kept falling after rates came down, to a low of 61.1 on May 17, 2025. They have since risen 32%, against -2% for all US postings, so the link to rates is not simple.",
      "Other causes overlap. Companies hired heavily during the pandemic, and from 2022 to 2024 a US tax rule made them spread software development costs over five years. A 2025 law restored immediate deductions for US development.",
      "Recent graduates feel it more. Unemployment is 7.0% for computer science and 7.8% for computer engineering, against 4.2% for all majors, per the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That is one year of data, so it does not show a trend and does not affect the score."
    ]
  },
  "fromHigh": "-65% from high",
  "status": "Recovering",
  "rule": "Recovering when postings rise over the year. Falling postings move toward solved.",
  "direction": "away",
  "checks": [
    {
      "date": "2026-11-02",
      "value": "80.8",
      "change": "+24%",
      "status": "Recovering"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-11-01",
      "value": "80.8",
      "change": "+24%",
      "status": "Recovering"
    }
  ],
  "url": "/signals/jobs",
  "api": "/api/signals/jobs.json",
  "credits": [
    {
      "name": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics",
      "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/",
      "signal": "jobs",
      "license": "US government work",
      "credit": "Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. BLS has not reviewed or endorsed this site or its results."
    },
    {
      "name": "Federal funds rate",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
      "signal": "jobs",
      "license": "Public domain, citation requested",
      "credit": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Federal Funds Effective Rate [FEDFUNDS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis."
    },
    {
      "name": "Indeed Hiring Lab",
      "url": "https://github.com/hiring-lab/job_postings_tracker",
      "signal": "jobs",
      "license": "CC BY 4.0",
      "credit": "Data from the Indeed Hiring Lab Job Postings Index, licensed under CC BY 4.0. We calculate changes and comparisons from the published index."
    },
    {
      "name": "New York Fed recent graduates data",
      "url": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market",
      "signal": "jobs",
      "license": "New York Fed Terms of Use, with attribution",
      "credit": "© 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Content from the New York Fed subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org."
    }
  ]
}