{
  "notice": "Please credit \"Is software solved?\" and the sources listed in credits when you reuse these numbers. They are our own aggregates. For original records, go to each source.",
  "id": "tech-output",
  "name": "Output per tech worker",
  "question": "Are fewer people producing more?",
  "metric": "US information sector real output per worker, Q4 2022 = 100",
  "solvedIf": "Output keeps rising while fewer people produce it",
  "value": "151.2",
  "change": "+14%",
  "trend": [
    {
      "label": "2019-01",
      "value": 73
    },
    {
      "label": "2019-04",
      "value": 75.9
    },
    {
      "label": "2019-07",
      "value": 77.7
    },
    {
      "label": "2019-10",
      "value": 78.4
    },
    {
      "label": "2020-01",
      "value": 77.3
    },
    {
      "label": "2020-04",
      "value": 76.7
    },
    {
      "label": "2020-07",
      "value": 81.3
    },
    {
      "label": "2020-10",
      "value": 82.4
    },
    {
      "label": "2021-01",
      "value": 85.5
    },
    {
      "label": "2021-04",
      "value": 89.3
    },
    {
      "label": "2021-07",
      "value": 91.5
    },
    {
      "label": "2021-10",
      "value": 95.4
    },
    {
      "label": "2022-01",
      "value": 94.2
    },
    {
      "label": "2022-04",
      "value": 95.9
    },
    {
      "label": "2022-07",
      "value": 98.1
    },
    {
      "label": "2022-10",
      "value": 100
    },
    {
      "label": "2023-01",
      "value": 102
    },
    {
      "label": "2023-04",
      "value": 104.5
    },
    {
      "label": "2023-07",
      "value": 108.9
    },
    {
      "label": "2023-10",
      "value": 111.1
    },
    {
      "label": "2024-01",
      "value": 112
    },
    {
      "label": "2024-04",
      "value": 113.5
    },
    {
      "label": "2024-07",
      "value": 115.5
    },
    {
      "label": "2024-10",
      "value": 117
    },
    {
      "label": "2025-01",
      "value": 119.2
    },
    {
      "label": "2025-04",
      "value": 122.7
    },
    {
      "label": "2025-07",
      "value": 125.9
    },
    {
      "label": "2025-10",
      "value": 127.6
    },
    {
      "label": "2026-01",
      "value": 132.4
    },
    {
      "label": "2026-04",
      "value": 135.3
    }
  ],
  "trendLabel": "US information sector real output and employment, both set to 100 in Q4 2022.",
  "caution": [
    "The information sector is not just software. It also includes telecoms, publishing, film and broadcasting.",
    "The cause is open. Output per worker was already growing about 7% a year before the pandemic, and layoffs, interest rates or pricing can raise it too, so only the gain above that earlier trend counts toward the score. These figures are US only."
  ],
  "score": 21,
  "scoreReason": "Output per worker is +16% against its 2015 to 2019 trend. Doubling that trend scores 100%.",
  "comparison": {
    "name": "Employment",
    "sameAxis": true,
    "trend": [
      {
        "label": "2019-01",
        "value": 91.7
      },
      {
        "label": "2019-04",
        "value": 92.2
      },
      {
        "label": "2019-07",
        "value": 92.4
      },
      {
        "label": "2019-10",
        "value": 92.9
      },
      {
        "label": "2020-01",
        "value": 93.6
      },
      {
        "label": "2020-04",
        "value": 84.6
      },
      {
        "label": "2020-07",
        "value": 85.5
      },
      {
        "label": "2020-10",
        "value": 86.9
      },
      {
        "label": "2021-01",
        "value": 89
      },
      {
        "label": "2021-04",
        "value": 90.6
      },
      {
        "label": "2021-07",
        "value": 93.5
      },
      {
        "label": "2021-10",
        "value": 95.2
      },
      {
        "label": "2022-01",
        "value": 96.6
      },
      {
        "label": "2022-04",
        "value": 98.5
      },
      {
        "label": "2022-07",
        "value": 99.8
      },
      {
        "label": "2022-10",
        "value": 100
      },
      {
        "label": "2023-01",
        "value": 98.4
      },
      {
        "label": "2023-04",
        "value": 97.8
      },
      {
        "label": "2023-07",
        "value": 96.2
      },
      {
        "label": "2023-10",
        "value": 95.4
      },
      {
        "label": "2024-01",
        "value": 95.3
      },
      {
        "label": "2024-04",
        "value": 94.6
      },
      {
        "label": "2024-07",
        "value": 93.8
      },
      {
        "label": "2024-10",
        "value": 93.1
      },
      {
        "label": "2025-01",
        "value": 92.6
      },
      {
        "label": "2025-04",
        "value": 92.3
      },
      {
        "label": "2025-07",
        "value": 92.2
      },
      {
        "label": "2025-10",
        "value": 91.8
      },
      {
        "label": "2026-01",
        "value": 90.3
      },
      {
        "label": "2026-04",
        "value": 89.5
      }
    ]
  },
  "events": [
    {
      "month": "2022-11",
      "label": "ChatGPT"
    }
  ],
  "analysis": {
    "title": "What the numbers show",
    "intro": "Output is +35% and employment is -10% since Q4 2022, but most of the gain follows an older trend.",
    "points": [
      "Output per worker already grew about 7% a year from 2015 to 2019.",
      "The latest figure is +16% against that trend, and that gap is what counts toward the score."
    ]
  },
  "fromHigh": "At its high",
  "status": "More per worker",
  "rule": "More per worker when output per worker is higher than a year before.",
  "direction": "toward",
  "checks": [
    {
      "date": "2026-11-02",
      "value": "151.2",
      "change": "+14%",
      "status": "More per worker"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-11-01",
      "value": "151.2",
      "change": "+14%",
      "status": "More per worker"
    }
  ],
  "url": "/signals/tech-output",
  "api": "/api/signals/tech-output.json",
  "credits": [
    {
      "name": "BEA and BLS information sector data",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RVAI",
      "signal": "tech-output",
      "license": "Public domain, citation requested",
      "credit": "U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Value Added by Industry: Information [RVAI], and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees, Information [USINFO], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Not endorsed or certified by BEA."
    }
  ]
}