{
  "notice": "Please credit \"Is software solved?\" and the sources listed in credits when you reuse these numbers. They are our own aggregates. For original records, go to each source.",
  "id": "agent-prs",
  "name": "AI pull requests",
  "question": "Are coding agents shipping code in public?",
  "metric": "Public GitHub pull requests clearly labelled as coming from coding agents, latest full month",
  "solvedIf": "Coding agents open most pull requests",
  "value": "1.5M",
  "change": "+177%",
  "trend": [
    {
      "label": "2024-12",
      "value": 1895
    },
    {
      "label": "2025-01",
      "value": 2363
    },
    {
      "label": "2025-02",
      "value": 2861
    },
    {
      "label": "2025-03",
      "value": 3322
    },
    {
      "label": "2025-04",
      "value": 4905
    },
    {
      "label": "2025-05",
      "value": 70099
    },
    {
      "label": "2025-06",
      "value": 400429
    },
    {
      "label": "2025-07",
      "value": 300846
    },
    {
      "label": "2025-08",
      "value": 434829
    },
    {
      "label": "2025-09",
      "value": 450995
    },
    {
      "label": "2025-10",
      "value": 559400
    },
    {
      "label": "2025-11",
      "value": 473850
    },
    {
      "label": "2025-12",
      "value": 474276
    },
    {
      "label": "2026-01",
      "value": 537322
    },
    {
      "label": "2026-02",
      "value": 676716
    },
    {
      "label": "2026-03",
      "value": 817335
    },
    {
      "label": "2026-04",
      "value": 735445
    },
    {
      "label": "2026-05",
      "value": 779567
    },
    {
      "label": "2026-06",
      "value": 646052
    },
    {
      "label": "2026-07",
      "value": 798827
    },
    {
      "label": "2026-08",
      "value": 906062
    },
    {
      "label": "2026-09",
      "value": 1092496
    },
    {
      "label": "2026-10",
      "value": 1549090
    }
  ],
  "trendLabel": "Public GitHub pull requests from identifiable coding agents, per month.",
  "caution": [
    "This undercounts AI work. Most agent-written code is opened under a person's account, so it looks human here. Only accounts and branch names that identify an agent are counted.",
    "It also counts opening, not merging or quality. Codex is matched by its default branch name, so some of those may be people, and a pull request can be automated without any AI."
  ],
  "score": 5,
  "scoreReason": "4.7% of public pull requests clearly come from agents, and most agent work is hidden.",
  "analysis": {
    "title": "Which agents",
    "intro": "These are 4.7% of all public pull requests, against 6.8% a year earlier.",
    "points": [
      "Codex: 1,381,684, against 418,960 a year earlier.",
      "Copilot: 61,241, against 120,409 a year earlier.",
      "Devin: 53,084, against 4,102 a year earlier.",
      "Cursor: 29,333, against 35 a year earlier.",
      "Claude: 12,280, against 148 a year earlier.",
      "Jules: 11,468, against 15,746 a year earlier."
    ]
  },
  "fromHigh": "At its high",
  "status": "More agents",
  "rule": "More agents when more agent pull requests are opened than in the same month a year before.",
  "direction": "toward",
  "checks": [
    {
      "date": "2026-11-02",
      "value": "1.5M",
      "change": "+177%",
      "status": "More agents"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-11-01",
      "value": "1.5M",
      "change": "+177%",
      "status": "More agents"
    }
  ],
  "url": "/signals/agent-prs",
  "api": "/api/signals/agent-prs.json",
  "credits": [
    {
      "name": "GitHub pull request search",
      "url": "https://docs.github.com/en/search-github/searching-on-github/searching-issues-and-pull-requests",
      "signal": "agent-prs",
      "license": "No data license published",
      "credit": "Counts derived from the GitHub search API."
    }
  ]
}