{
  "notice": "Please credit \"Is software solved?\" and the sources listed in credits when you reuse these numbers. They are our own aggregates. For original records, go to each source.",
  "signals": [
    {
      "id": "jobs",
      "name": "Jobs",
      "question": "Do we still need people to write software?",
      "metric": "US software postings on Indeed (Feb 2020 = 100)",
      "solvedIf": "Demand for engineers keeps falling",
      "value": "80.8",
      "change": "+24%",
      "trend": [
        {
          "label": "2020-02-01",
          "value": 100
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-03-01",
          "value": 100.09
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-04-01",
          "value": 86.78
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-05-01",
          "value": 70.29
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-06-01",
          "value": 64.83
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-07-01",
          "value": 65.37
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-08-01",
          "value": 69.11
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-09-01",
          "value": 70.99
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-10-01",
          "value": 75
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-11-01",
          "value": 80.76
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-12-01",
          "value": 87.86
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-01-01",
          "value": 91.27
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-02-01",
          "value": 98.02
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-03-01",
          "value": 107.84
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-04-01",
          "value": 116.89
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-05-01",
          "value": 125.62
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-06-01",
          "value": 134
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-07-01",
          "value": 141.2
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-08-01",
          "value": 151.03
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-09-01",
          "value": 169.71
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-10-01",
          "value": 178.95
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-11-01",
          "value": 193.74
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-12-01",
          "value": 209.81
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-01-01",
          "value": 212.98
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-02-01",
          "value": 225.14
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-03-01",
          "value": 233.52
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-04-01",
          "value": 225.61
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-05-01",
          "value": 223.46
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-06-01",
          "value": 224.85
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-07-01",
          "value": 211.27
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-08-01",
          "value": 194.16
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-09-01",
          "value": 180.29
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-10-01",
          "value": 168.08
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-11-01",
          "value": 155.07
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-12-01",
          "value": 142.35
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-01-01",
          "value": 130.27
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-02-01",
          "value": 121.15
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-03-01",
          "value": 105.95
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-04-01",
          "value": 99.5
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-05-01",
          "value": 98.19
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-06-01",
          "value": 94.03
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-07-01",
          "value": 82.6
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-08-01",
          "value": 81.51
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-09-01",
          "value": 78.64
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-10-01",
          "value": 75.09
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-11-01",
          "value": 74.16
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-12-01",
          "value": 72.44
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-01-01",
          "value": 72.58
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-02-01",
          "value": 71.09
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-03-01",
          "value": 70.82
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-04-01",
          "value": 70.7
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-05-01",
          "value": 69.21
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-06-01",
          "value": 70.15
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-07-01",
          "value": 70.08
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-08-01",
          "value": 69.73
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-09-01",
          "value": 68.56
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-10-01",
          "value": 69.19
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-11-01",
          "value": 68.58
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-12-01",
          "value": 67.45
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-01-01",
          "value": 67.52
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-02-01",
          "value": 66.78
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-03-01",
          "value": 62.58
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-04-01",
          "value": 62.57
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-05-01",
          "value": 63.19
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-06-01",
          "value": 64.08
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-07-01",
          "value": 65.35
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-08-01",
          "value": 66.19
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-09-01",
          "value": 65.02
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-10-01",
          "value": 64.28
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-11-01",
          "value": 65.78
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-12-01",
          "value": 66.64
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-01-01",
          "value": 67.21
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-02-01",
          "value": 69.41
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-03-01",
          "value": 70.71
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-04-01",
          "value": 72.76
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-05-01",
          "value": 72.94
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-06-01",
          "value": 73.41
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-07-01",
          "value": 73.46
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-08-01",
          "value": 75.15
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-09-01",
          "value": 74.87
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-10-23",
          "value": 80.8
        }
      ],
      "trendLabel": "Indeed index for US software postings, February 1, 2020 = 100, against the federal funds rate. Both are monthly.",
      "score": 26,
      "scoreReason": "Software postings have lost 26% against all US postings since ChatGPT launched.",
      "comparison": {
        "name": "Federal funds rate",
        "trend": [
          {
            "label": "2020-02-01",
            "value": 1.58
          },
          {
            "label": "2020-03-01",
            "value": 0.65
          },
          {
            "label": "2020-04-01",
            "value": 0.05
          },
          {
            "label": "2020-05-01",
            "value": 0.05
          },
          {
            "label": "2020-06-01",
            "value": 0.08
          },
          {
            "label": "2020-07-01",
            "value": 0.09
          },
          {
            "label": "2020-08-01",
            "value": 0.1
          },
          {
            "label": "2020-09-01",
            "value": 0.09
          },
          {
            "label": "2020-10-01",
            "value": 0.09
          },
          {
            "label": "2020-11-01",
            "value": 0.09
          },
          {
            "label": "2020-12-01",
            "value": 0.09
          },
          {
            "label": "2021-01-01",
            "value": 0.09
          },
          {
            "label": "2021-02-01",
            "value": 0.08
          },
          {
            "label": "2021-03-01",
            "value": 0.07
          },
          {
            "label": "2021-04-01",
            "value": 0.07
          },
          {
            "label": "2021-05-01",
            "value": 0.06
          },
          {
            "label": "2021-06-01",
            "value": 0.08
          },
          {
            "label": "2021-07-01",
            "value": 0.1
          },
          {
            "label": "2021-08-01",
            "value": 0.09
          },
          {
            "label": "2021-09-01",
            "value": 0.08
          },
          {
            "label": "2021-10-01",
            "value": 0.08
          },
          {
            "label": "2021-11-01",
            "value": 0.08
          },
          {
            "label": "2021-12-01",
            "value": 0.08
          },
          {
            "label": "2022-01-01",
            "value": 0.08
          },
          {
            "label": "2022-02-01",
            "value": 0.08
          },
          {
            "label": "2022-03-01",
            "value": 0.2
          },
          {
            "label": "2022-04-01",
            "value": 0.33
          },
          {
            "label": "2022-05-01",
            "value": 0.77
          },
          {
            "label": "2022-06-01",
            "value": 1.21
          },
          {
            "label": "2022-07-01",
            "value": 1.68
          },
          {
            "label": "2022-08-01",
            "value": 2.33
          },
          {
            "label": "2022-09-01",
            "value": 2.56
          },
          {
            "label": "2022-10-01",
            "value": 3.08
          },
          {
            "label": "2022-11-01",
            "value": 3.78
          },
          {
            "label": "2022-12-01",
            "value": 4.1
          },
          {
            "label": "2023-01-01",
            "value": 4.33
          },
          {
            "label": "2023-02-01",
            "value": 4.57
          },
          {
            "label": "2023-03-01",
            "value": 4.65
          },
          {
            "label": "2023-04-01",
            "value": 4.83
          },
          {
            "label": "2023-05-01",
            "value": 5.06
          },
          {
            "label": "2023-06-01",
            "value": 5.08
          },
          {
            "label": "2023-07-01",
            "value": 5.12
          },
          {
            "label": "2023-08-01",
            "value": 5.33
          },
          {
            "label": "2023-09-01",
            "value": 5.33
          },
          {
            "label": "2023-10-01",
            "value": 5.33
          },
          {
            "label": "2023-11-01",
            "value": 5.33
          },
          {
            "label": "2023-12-01",
            "value": 5.33
          },
          {
            "label": "2024-01-01",
            "value": 5.33
          },
          {
            "label": "2024-02-01",
            "value": 5.33
          },
          {
            "label": "2024-03-01",
            "value": 5.33
          },
          {
            "label": "2024-04-01",
            "value": 5.33
          },
          {
            "label": "2024-05-01",
            "value": 5.33
          },
          {
            "label": "2024-06-01",
            "value": 5.33
          },
          {
            "label": "2024-07-01",
            "value": 5.33
          },
          {
            "label": "2024-08-01",
            "value": 5.33
          },
          {
            "label": "2024-09-01",
            "value": 5.13
          },
          {
            "label": "2024-10-01",
            "value": 4.83
          },
          {
            "label": "2024-11-01",
            "value": 4.64
          },
          {
            "label": "2024-12-01",
            "value": 4.48
          },
          {
            "label": "2025-01-01",
            "value": 4.33
          },
          {
            "label": "2025-02-01",
            "value": 4.33
          },
          {
            "label": "2025-03-01",
            "value": 4.33
          },
          {
            "label": "2025-04-01",
            "value": 4.33
          },
          {
            "label": "2025-05-01",
            "value": 4.33
          },
          {
            "label": "2025-06-01",
            "value": 4.33
          },
          {
            "label": "2025-07-01",
            "value": 4.33
          },
          {
            "label": "2025-08-01",
            "value": 4.33
          },
          {
            "label": "2025-09-01",
            "value": 4.22
          },
          {
            "label": "2025-10-01",
            "value": 4.09
          },
          {
            "label": "2025-11-01",
            "value": 3.88
          },
          {
            "label": "2025-12-01",
            "value": 3.72
          },
          {
            "label": "2026-01-01",
            "value": 3.64
          },
          {
            "label": "2026-02-01",
            "value": 3.64
          },
          {
            "label": "2026-03-01",
            "value": 3.64
          },
          {
            "label": "2026-04-01",
            "value": 3.64
          },
          {
            "label": "2026-05-01",
            "value": 3.63
          },
          {
            "label": "2026-06-01",
            "value": 3.63
          },
          {
            "label": "2026-07-01",
            "value": 3.63
          },
          {
            "label": "2026-08-01",
            "value": 3.63
          },
          {
            "label": "2026-09-01",
            "value": 3.75
          }
        ]
      },
      "events": [
        {
          "month": "2022-03",
          "label": "First rate rise"
        },
        {
          "month": "2022-11",
          "label": "ChatGPT"
        }
      ],
      "analysis": {
        "title": "Is it AI or interest rates?",
        "intro": "It is too early to tell. The timing leaves room for an AI turning point, but rates and the wider economy could explain the fall on their own.",
        "points": [
          "Postings peaked at 233.8 on Feb 28, 2022, weeks before the Federal Reserve began raising rates. The rate went from 0.08% to 5.33% by August 2023, which made it more expensive for companies to fund growth.",
          "ChatGPT came out on Nov 30, 2022. By then postings were already 39% below their peak, so AI tools cannot explain that part of the fall.",
          "On that day, software and all US postings were about level, at 142.5 and 146.7. Today software is 22% behind, at 80.8 against 103.7. AI could be part of that gap, but so could rates hitting software harder.",
          "Postings kept falling after rates came down, to a low of 61.1 on May 17, 2025. They have since risen 32%, against -2% for all US postings, so the link to rates is not simple.",
          "Other causes overlap. Companies hired heavily during the pandemic, and from 2022 to 2024 a US tax rule made them spread software development costs over five years. A 2025 law restored immediate deductions for US development.",
          "Recent graduates feel it more. Unemployment is 7.0% for computer science and 7.8% for computer engineering, against 4.2% for all majors, per the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That is one year of data, so it does not show a trend and does not affect the score."
        ]
      },
      "fromHigh": "-65% from high",
      "status": "Recovering",
      "rule": "Recovering when postings rise over the year. Falling postings move toward solved.",
      "direction": "away",
      "checks": [
        {
          "date": "2026-11-02",
          "value": "80.8",
          "change": "+24%",
          "status": "Recovering"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-11-01",
          "value": "80.8",
          "change": "+24%",
          "status": "Recovering"
        }
      ],
      "url": "/signals/jobs",
      "api": "/api/signals/jobs.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "code-activity",
      "name": "Code activity",
      "question": "Are people still building?",
      "metric": "Git pushes worldwide on GitHub, latest quarter",
      "solvedIf": "Building gets so easy that code output keeps climbing",
      "value": "408M",
      "change": "+95%",
      "trend": [
        {
          "label": "2020 Q1",
          "value": 81
        },
        {
          "label": "2020 Q2",
          "value": 98
        },
        {
          "label": "2020 Q3",
          "value": 90
        },
        {
          "label": "2020 Q4",
          "value": 95
        },
        {
          "label": "2021 Q1",
          "value": 100
        },
        {
          "label": "2021 Q2",
          "value": 106
        },
        {
          "label": "2021 Q3",
          "value": 99
        },
        {
          "label": "2021 Q4",
          "value": 107
        },
        {
          "label": "2022 Q1",
          "value": 117
        },
        {
          "label": "2022 Q2",
          "value": 126
        },
        {
          "label": "2022 Q3",
          "value": 126
        },
        {
          "label": "2022 Q4",
          "value": 135
        },
        {
          "label": "2023 Q1",
          "value": 144
        },
        {
          "label": "2023 Q2",
          "value": 147
        },
        {
          "label": "2023 Q3",
          "value": 141
        },
        {
          "label": "2023 Q4",
          "value": 149
        },
        {
          "label": "2024 Q1",
          "value": 153
        },
        {
          "label": "2024 Q2",
          "value": 158
        },
        {
          "label": "2024 Q3",
          "value": 153
        },
        {
          "label": "2024 Q4",
          "value": 168
        },
        {
          "label": "2025 Q1",
          "value": 178
        },
        {
          "label": "2025 Q2",
          "value": 209
        },
        {
          "label": "2025 Q3",
          "value": 215
        },
        {
          "label": "2025 Q4",
          "value": 247
        },
        {
          "label": "2026 Q1",
          "value": 320
        },
        {
          "label": "2026 Q2",
          "value": 408
        }
      ],
      "trendLabel": "Worldwide git pushes per quarter, in millions.",
      "score": 48,
      "scoreReason": "Up 201% since ChatGPT launched.",
      "events": [
        {
          "month": "2022-11",
          "label": "ChatGPT launched"
        }
      ],
      "analysis": {
        "title": "Repositories and developers",
        "intro": "GitHub activity in 2026 Q2 and a year earlier.",
        "points": [
          "454M repositories saw activity, against 371M.",
          "209M developers, against 155M."
        ]
      },
      "fromHigh": "At its high",
      "status": "Git pushes increased",
      "rule": "Git pushes increased when pushes rise by at least 2% over the year.",
      "direction": "away",
      "checks": [
        {
          "date": "2026-11-02",
          "value": "408M",
          "change": "+95%",
          "status": "Git pushes increased"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-11-01",
          "value": "408M",
          "change": "+95%",
          "status": "Still building"
        }
      ],
      "url": "/signals/code-activity",
      "api": "/api/signals/code-activity.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "revenue",
      "name": "Revenue",
      "question": "Is the money still growing?",
      "metric": "Annual revenue of 10 public software companies",
      "solvedIf": "Spend flattens or shrinks",
      "value": "$192B",
      "change": "+15%",
      "trend": [
        {
          "label": "2016",
          "value": 62
        },
        {
          "label": "2017",
          "value": 69
        },
        {
          "label": "2018",
          "value": 77
        },
        {
          "label": "2019",
          "value": 87
        },
        {
          "label": "2020",
          "value": 98
        },
        {
          "label": "2021",
          "value": 115
        },
        {
          "label": "2022",
          "value": 137
        },
        {
          "label": "2023",
          "value": 151
        },
        {
          "label": "2024",
          "value": 168
        },
        {
          "label": "2025",
          "value": 192
        }
      ],
      "trendLabel": "Combined annual revenue of the same 10 companies, in billions of dollars.",
      "score": 0,
      "scoreReason": "Against GDP: Up 24% since ChatGPT launched.",
      "fromHigh": "At its high",
      "status": "Still growing",
      "rule": "Still growing when combined revenue rises over the year. Shrinking revenue moves toward solved.",
      "direction": "away",
      "checks": [
        {
          "date": "2026-11-02",
          "value": "$192B",
          "change": "+15%",
          "status": "Still growing"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-11-01",
          "value": "$192B",
          "change": "+15%",
          "status": "Still growing"
        }
      ],
      "url": "/signals/revenue",
      "api": "/api/signals/revenue.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "prices",
      "name": "Prices",
      "question": "Is software getting cheaper?",
      "metric": "US producer price index for software publishers",
      "solvedIf": "Software keeps getting cheaper",
      "value": "102.1",
      "change": "+2%",
      "trend": [
        {
          "label": "2017-01",
          "value": 86.2
        },
        {
          "label": "2017-02",
          "value": 87.2
        },
        {
          "label": "2017-03",
          "value": 87.8
        },
        {
          "label": "2017-04",
          "value": 88.3
        },
        {
          "label": "2017-05",
          "value": 88.7
        },
        {
          "label": "2017-06",
          "value": 88.3
        },
        {
          "label": "2017-07",
          "value": 87.7
        },
        {
          "label": "2017-08",
          "value": 87.5
        },
        {
          "label": "2017-09",
          "value": 86.6
        },
        {
          "label": "2017-10",
          "value": 87.1
        },
        {
          "label": "2017-11",
          "value": 86.9
        },
        {
          "label": "2017-12",
          "value": 86.7
        },
        {
          "label": "2018-01",
          "value": 86.9
        },
        {
          "label": "2018-02",
          "value": 86.1
        },
        {
          "label": "2018-03",
          "value": 87.7
        },
        {
          "label": "2018-04",
          "value": 87.2
        },
        {
          "label": "2018-05",
          "value": 87.5
        },
        {
          "label": "2018-06",
          "value": 87.1
        },
        {
          "label": "2018-07",
          "value": 87.7
        },
        {
          "label": "2018-08",
          "value": 86.7
        },
        {
          "label": "2018-09",
          "value": 86.4
        },
        {
          "label": "2018-10",
          "value": 86.7
        },
        {
          "label": "2018-11",
          "value": 86.5
        },
        {
          "label": "2018-12",
          "value": 85.3
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-01",
          "value": 86.8
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-02",
          "value": 85.4
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-03",
          "value": 85.5
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-04",
          "value": 86.4
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-05",
          "value": 87.2
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-06",
          "value": 86.3
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-07",
          "value": 87.5
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-08",
          "value": 87.1
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-09",
          "value": 86.9
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-10",
          "value": 86.6
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-11",
          "value": 86.3
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-12",
          "value": 86.2
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-01",
          "value": 86
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-02",
          "value": 86.3
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-03",
          "value": 86.3
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-04",
          "value": 86.7
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-05",
          "value": 86.5
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-06",
          "value": 87
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-07",
          "value": 86.9
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-08",
          "value": 86.7
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-09",
          "value": 87.6
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-10",
          "value": 88.3
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-11",
          "value": 88.2
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-12",
          "value": 87.4
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-01",
          "value": 87.2
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-02",
          "value": 86
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-03",
          "value": 86.7
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-04",
          "value": 86.9
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-05",
          "value": 87.5
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-06",
          "value": 87.7
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-07",
          "value": 87.838
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-08",
          "value": 87.692
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-09",
          "value": 87.453
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-10",
          "value": 88.129
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-11",
          "value": 87.977
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-12",
          "value": 86.972
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-01",
          "value": 88.098
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-02",
          "value": 85.477
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-03",
          "value": 87.576
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-04",
          "value": 86.146
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-05",
          "value": 87.323
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-06",
          "value": 87.665
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-07",
          "value": 88.123
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-08",
          "value": 87.476
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-09",
          "value": 88.24
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-10",
          "value": 87.493
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-11",
          "value": 86.037
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-12",
          "value": 86.58
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-01",
          "value": 88.44
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-02",
          "value": 89.142
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-03",
          "value": 89.162
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-04",
          "value": 88.673
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-05",
          "value": 90.221
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-06",
          "value": 90.598
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-07",
          "value": 90.81
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-08",
          "value": 91.614
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-09",
          "value": 91.954
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-10",
          "value": 93.079
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-11",
          "value": 92.048
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-12",
          "value": 93.323
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-01",
          "value": 92.945
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-02",
          "value": 92.66
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-03",
          "value": 93.189
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-04",
          "value": 94.741
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-05",
          "value": 95.198
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-06",
          "value": 96.983
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-07",
          "value": 99.81
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-08",
          "value": 99.007
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-09",
          "value": 100.039
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-10",
          "value": 101.06
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-11",
          "value": 101.378
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-12",
          "value": 100.642
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-01",
          "value": 100.215
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-02",
          "value": 99.612
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-03",
          "value": 99.525
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-04",
          "value": 96.537
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-05",
          "value": 96.172
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-06",
          "value": 95.837
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-07",
          "value": 98.514
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-08",
          "value": 99.93
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-09",
          "value": 99.746
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-10",
          "value": 102.853
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-11",
          "value": 101.06
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-12",
          "value": 100.653
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-01",
          "value": 98.009
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-02",
          "value": 98.165
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-03",
          "value": 98.62
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-04",
          "value": 99.516
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-05",
          "value": 99.573
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-06",
          "value": 99.614
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-07",
          "value": 103.212
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-08",
          "value": 101.449
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-09",
          "value": 102.101
        }
      ],
      "trendLabel": "BLS index for software publishers, monthly.",
      "score": 0,
      "scoreReason": "After inflation: Up 5% since ChatGPT launched.",
      "fromHigh": "-1% from high",
      "status": "Rising",
      "rule": "Rising when the price index is higher than a year before. Falling prices move toward solved.",
      "direction": "away",
      "checks": [
        {
          "date": "2026-11-02",
          "value": "102.1",
          "change": "+2%",
          "status": "Rising"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-11-01",
          "value": "102.1",
          "change": "+2%",
          "status": "Rising"
        }
      ],
      "url": "/signals/prices",
      "api": "/api/signals/prices.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "security",
      "name": "Security",
      "question": "Are we still getting pwned?",
      "metric": "Added to CISA's exploited list, last 12 months",
      "solvedIf": "Exploited vulnerabilities trend toward zero",
      "value": "313",
      "change": "+24%",
      "trend": [
        {
          "label": "2024-01-14",
          "value": 196
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-02-13",
          "value": 203
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-03-14",
          "value": 195
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-04-13",
          "value": 184
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-05-13",
          "value": 174
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-06-12",
          "value": 176
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-07-12",
          "value": 159
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-08-11",
          "value": 162
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-09-10",
          "value": 178
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-10-10",
          "value": 174
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-11-09",
          "value": 180
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-12-09",
          "value": 177
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-01-08",
          "value": 182
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-02-07",
          "value": 189
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-03-09",
          "value": 200
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-04-08",
          "value": 222
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-05-08",
          "value": 231
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-06-07",
          "value": 242
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-07-07",
          "value": 251
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-08-06",
          "value": 253
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-09-05",
          "value": 251
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-10-05",
          "value": 241
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-11-04",
          "value": 252
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-12-04",
          "value": 240
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-01-03",
          "value": 245
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-02-02",
          "value": 248
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-03-04",
          "value": 242
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-04-03",
          "value": 244
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-05-03",
          "value": 256
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-06-02",
          "value": 254
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-07-02",
          "value": 257
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-08-01",
          "value": 265
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-08-31",
          "value": 281
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-09-30",
          "value": 308
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-10-30",
          "value": 313
        }
      ],
      "trendLabel": "Rolling 12-month total, with one point per month.",
      "chartNote": "This chart shows counts. The score below adjusts counts for git pushes, so the two can move in opposite directions.",
      "caution": [
        "The data behind this score starts in January 2024, so it misses the first 14 months after ChatGPT launched.",
        "The score divides this count by git pushes. If AI agents are inflating the number of pushes, it can improve even if software is no more reliable."
      ],
      "score": 25,
      "scoreReason": "Per git push: Down 44% since January 2024, when the data starts.",
      "fromHigh": "At its high",
      "status": "Getting worse",
      "rule": "Getting worse when more exploited vulnerabilities are listed than a year before.",
      "direction": "away",
      "checks": [
        {
          "date": "2026-11-02",
          "value": "313",
          "change": "+24%",
          "status": "Getting worse"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-11-01",
          "value": "313",
          "change": "+24%",
          "status": "Getting worse"
        }
      ],
      "url": "/signals/security",
      "api": "/api/signals/security.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "outages",
      "name": "Major service outages",
      "question": "Do major software services stay up?",
      "metric": "Incidents at 12 software services, last 12 months",
      "solvedIf": "Major outages become rare and short",
      "value": "1,679",
      "change": "+18%",
      "trend": [
        {
          "label": "2024-12",
          "value": 1187
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-01",
          "value": 1174
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-02",
          "value": 1192
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-03",
          "value": 1223
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-04",
          "value": 1229
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-05",
          "value": 1277
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-06",
          "value": 1267
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-07",
          "value": 1299
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-08",
          "value": 1334
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-09",
          "value": 1379
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-10",
          "value": 1419
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-11",
          "value": 1464
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-12",
          "value": 1512
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-01",
          "value": 1543
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-02",
          "value": 1594
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-03",
          "value": 1631
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-04",
          "value": 1652
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-05",
          "value": 1667
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-06",
          "value": 1707
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-07",
          "value": 1731
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-08",
          "value": 1741
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-09",
          "value": 1690
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-10",
          "value": 1679
        }
      ],
      "trendLabel": "Rolling 12-month total of incidents at 12 software services, one point per month.",
      "chartNote": "This chart shows counts. The score below adjusts counts for git pushes, so the two can move in opposite directions.",
      "caution": [
        "The data behind this score starts in December 2024, so it misses the first 25 months after ChatGPT launched.",
        "The score divides this count by git pushes. If AI agents are inflating the number of pushes, it can improve even if software is no more reliable."
      ],
      "score": 23,
      "scoreReason": "Per git push: Down 42% since December 2024, when the data starts.",
      "analysis": {
        "title": "Which services are counted",
        "intro": "GitHub, Claude, DigitalOcean, Render, Netlify, MongoDB Cloud, Sentry, Discord, Dropbox, Bitbucket, Linode, Zoom.",
        "points": [
          "AWS is not counted, because its public feed only covers recent incidents. It currently shows 9, going back to Mar 1, 2026.",
          "Google Cloud is not counted, because its public feed only covers recent incidents. It currently shows 8, going back to Feb 27, 2026.",
          "Northflank is not counted, because its public feed only covers recent incidents. It currently shows 25, going back to Jun 12, 2025.",
          "Twilio is not counted, because its roughly 3,500 yearly notices would swamp the total. Railway is not counted, because we found no machine-readable incident history.",
          "A service that reports more honestly can look worse, so this shows reported incidents, not true reliability."
        ]
      },
      "fromHigh": "-4% from high",
      "status": "More incidents",
      "rule": "More incidents when these services report more than in the previous 12 months.",
      "direction": "away",
      "checks": [
        {
          "date": "2026-11-02",
          "value": "1,679",
          "change": "+18%",
          "status": "More incidents"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-11-01",
          "value": "1,679",
          "change": "+18%",
          "status": "More incidents"
        }
      ],
      "url": "/signals/outages",
      "api": "/api/signals/outages.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "bugs",
      "name": "Bugs",
      "question": "Does software still break?",
      "metric": "New vulnerabilities published in the National Vulnerability Database, last 12 months",
      "solvedIf": "Fewer serious defects are found each year",
      "value": "98,371",
      "change": "+109%",
      "trend": [
        {
          "label": "2019-12",
          "value": 17305
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-01",
          "value": 17749
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-02",
          "value": 18305
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-03",
          "value": 18877
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-04",
          "value": 19531
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-05",
          "value": 19232
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-06",
          "value": 19764
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-07",
          "value": 19563
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-08",
          "value": 18717
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-09",
          "value": 18779
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-10",
          "value": 18776
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-11",
          "value": 18370
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-12",
          "value": 18322
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-01",
          "value": 18190
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-02",
          "value": 18252
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-03",
          "value": 17944
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-04",
          "value": 17575
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-05",
          "value": 18031
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-06",
          "value": 17957
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-07",
          "value": 18122
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-08",
          "value": 19052
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-09",
          "value": 19361
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-10",
          "value": 19499
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-11",
          "value": 19736
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-12",
          "value": 20149
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-01",
          "value": 20641
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-02",
          "value": 21127
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-03",
          "value": 21739
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-04",
          "value": 21967
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-05",
          "value": 22515
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-06",
          "value": 23082
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-07",
          "value": 23469
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-08",
          "value": 23701
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-09",
          "value": 23996
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-10",
          "value": 24144
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-11",
          "value": 24594
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-12",
          "value": 25073
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-01",
          "value": 25394
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-02",
          "value": 25574
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-03",
          "value": 26032
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-04",
          "value": 26316
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-05",
          "value": 26713
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-06",
          "value": 26818
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-07",
          "value": 27154
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-08",
          "value": 27314
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-09",
          "value": 27265
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-10",
          "value": 28096
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-11",
          "value": 28587
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-12",
          "value": 28816
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-01",
          "value": 29073
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-02",
          "value": 29729
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-03",
          "value": 30522
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-04",
          "value": 31813
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-05",
          "value": 34394
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-06",
          "value": 35088
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-07",
          "value": 35896
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-08",
          "value": 36315
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-09",
          "value": 36681
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-10",
          "value": 37565
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-11",
          "value": 39172
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-12",
          "value": 39953
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-01",
          "value": 41634
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-02",
          "value": 42529
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-03",
          "value": 43218
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-04",
          "value": 43631
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-05",
          "value": 42612
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-06",
          "value": 43215
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-07",
          "value": 43878
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-08",
          "value": 44610
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-09",
          "value": 46417
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-10",
          "value": 47126
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-11",
          "value": 46091
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-12",
          "value": 48151
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-01",
          "value": 48178
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-02",
          "value": 49121
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-03",
          "value": 51357
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-04",
          "value": 53133
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-05",
          "value": 56089
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-06",
          "value": 60350
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-07",
          "value": 66344
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-08",
          "value": 74972
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-09",
          "value": 85584
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-10",
          "value": 98371
        }
      ],
      "trendLabel": "New published vulnerabilities, rolling 12 months, one point per month.",
      "chartNote": "This chart shows counts. The score below adjusts counts for git pushes, so the two can move in opposite directions.",
      "caution": [
        "This counts reported vulnerabilities, not all bugs. More software and better detection, including by AI, also raise the count."
      ],
      "score": 0,
      "scoreReason": "Per git push: Up 23% since ChatGPT launched.",
      "fromHigh": "At its high",
      "status": "More reported",
      "rule": "More reported when more vulnerabilities are published than in the 12 months before.",
      "direction": "away",
      "checks": [
        {
          "date": "2026-11-02",
          "value": "98,371",
          "change": "+109%",
          "status": "More reported"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-11-01",
          "value": "98,371",
          "change": "+109%",
          "status": "More reported"
        }
      ],
      "url": "/signals/bugs",
      "api": "/api/signals/bugs.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "sentiment",
      "name": "Developer sentiment",
      "question": "Do developers think software is solved?",
      "metric": "Sampled Hacker News comments and Bluesky posts taking a side that say it is getting solved, last 12 months",
      "solvedIf": "Most developers who take a side say it is",
      "value": "7%",
      "trend": [
        {
          "label": "2024-10",
          "value": 9
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-11",
          "value": 17
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-12",
          "value": 16
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-01",
          "value": 17
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-02",
          "value": 10
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-03",
          "value": 0
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-04",
          "value": 3
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-05",
          "value": 11
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-06",
          "value": 17
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-07",
          "value": 3
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-08",
          "value": 7
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-09",
          "value": 0
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-10",
          "value": 11
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-11",
          "value": 4
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-12",
          "value": 3
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-01",
          "value": 3
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-02",
          "value": 11
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-03",
          "value": 8
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-04",
          "value": 3
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-05",
          "value": 6
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-06",
          "value": 15
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-07",
          "value": 9
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-08",
          "value": 9
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-09",
          "value": 9
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-10",
          "value": 13
        }
      ],
      "trendLabel": "Share of sampled posts taking a side that say software is getting solved, per month, averaged across Hacker News and Bluesky. Each month rests on few posts, so expect noise.",
      "score": 7,
      "scoreReason": "7% of sampled Hacker News and Bluesky posts taking a side say it is getting solved.",
      "analysis": {
        "title": "Two communities",
        "intro": "Both samples are small, and most posts take no clear side, so read these as rough readings.",
        "points": [
          "Hacker News: 7% say it is getting solved, 13 comments against 162.",
          "Bluesky: 7% say it is getting solved, 13 posts against 176.",
          "In the 2025 Stack Overflow Developer Survey, 84% use or plan to use AI tools, but more developers distrust their accuracy (46%) than trust it (33%). This does not affect the score."
        ]
      },
      "status": "Skeptical",
      "rule": "Skeptical when under half of the sampled comments taking a side say software is getting solved.",
      "direction": "away",
      "checks": [
        {
          "date": "2026-11-02",
          "value": "7%",
          "status": "Skeptical"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-11-01",
          "value": "7%",
          "status": "Skeptical"
        }
      ],
      "url": "/signals/sentiment",
      "api": "/api/signals/sentiment.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "agent-tools",
      "name": "Agent tools",
      "question": "Are people still building tools for AI models?",
      "metric": "New public GitHub repos tagged mcp-server, latest full month",
      "solvedIf": "AI models can reach almost any tool or service",
      "value": "7,639",
      "change": "+1208%",
      "trend": [
        {
          "label": "2024-11",
          "value": 25
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-12",
          "value": 86
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-01",
          "value": 81
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-02",
          "value": 124
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-03",
          "value": 546
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-04",
          "value": 796
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-05",
          "value": 646
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-06",
          "value": 738
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-07",
          "value": 640
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-08",
          "value": 594
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-09",
          "value": 523
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-10",
          "value": 584
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-11",
          "value": 579
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-12",
          "value": 652
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-01",
          "value": 896
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-02",
          "value": 1660
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-03",
          "value": 3157
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-04",
          "value": 3167
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-05",
          "value": 3000
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-06",
          "value": 3084
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-07",
          "value": 3325
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-08",
          "value": 3717
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-09",
          "value": 5061
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-10",
          "value": 7639
        }
      ],
      "trendLabel": "New public GitHub repos tagged mcp-server, per month, since MCP launched.",
      "fromHigh": "At its high",
      "status": "Expanding",
      "rule": "Expanding when more repos are created than in the same month a year before.",
      "direction": "away",
      "checks": [
        {
          "date": "2026-11-02",
          "value": "7,639",
          "change": "+1208%",
          "status": "Expanding"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-11-01",
          "value": "7,639",
          "change": "+1208%",
          "status": "Expanding"
        }
      ],
      "url": "/signals/agent-tools",
      "api": "/api/signals/agent-tools.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "ai-company-jobs",
      "name": "AI company hiring",
      "question": "Are the companies building AI still hiring engineers?",
      "metric": "Open software engineering roles at 11 AI companies, today",
      "solvedIf": "The companies closest to the tools stop hiring engineers",
      "value": "464",
      "score": 0,
      "scoreReason": "0 of 11 AI companies have stopped hiring engineers.",
      "analysis": {
        "title": "Who is hiring",
        "intro": "11 of 11 companies have open software engineering roles. Hiring does not show how much of their code AI writes.",
        "points": [
          "OpenAI: 162 engineering roles, out of 810 open roles.",
          "Anthropic: 99 engineering roles, out of 675 open roles.",
          "Perplexity: 53 engineering roles, out of 138 open roles.",
          "xAI: 44 engineering roles, out of 308 open roles.",
          "Cohere: 29 engineering roles, out of 122 open roles.",
          "Cursor: 24 engineering roles, out of 125 open roles.",
          "Mistral: 22 engineering roles, out of 229 open roles.",
          "Lovable: 14 engineering roles, out of 80 open roles.",
          "Replit: 8 engineering roles, out of 34 open roles.",
          "Factory: 5 engineering roles, out of 67 open roles.",
          "Cognition: 4 engineering roles, out of 106 open roles."
        ]
      },
      "status": "Still hiring",
      "rule": "Still hiring when any of these companies lists an open software engineering role.",
      "direction": "away",
      "checks": [
        {
          "date": "2026-11-02",
          "value": "464",
          "status": "Still hiring"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-11-01",
          "value": "464",
          "status": "Still hiring"
        }
      ],
      "url": "/signals/ai-company-jobs",
      "api": "/api/signals/ai-company-jobs.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "token-prices",
      "name": "AI token prices",
      "question": "Is AI getting cheaper to use?",
      "metric": "Median listed price per 1M tokens across AI models from their makers, with 3 input tokens per output token",
      "solvedIf": "Using AI becomes close to free",
      "value": "$2.00",
      "change": "-27%",
      "trend": [
        {
          "label": "2023-10",
          "value": 16.44
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-11",
          "value": 16.44
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-12",
          "value": 12
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-01",
          "value": 4.1
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-02",
          "value": 12
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-03",
          "value": 4.1
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-04",
          "value": 4.05
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-05",
          "value": 4.05
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-06",
          "value": 3.25
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-07",
          "value": 3.75
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-08",
          "value": 3
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-09",
          "value": 3.25
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-10",
          "value": 3.75
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-11",
          "value": 3.25
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-12",
          "value": 3.25
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-01",
          "value": 3.75
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-02",
          "value": 3.25
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-03",
          "value": 3.75
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-04",
          "value": 3.25
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-05",
          "value": 3.25
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-06",
          "value": 3
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-07",
          "value": 3
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-08",
          "value": 3
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-09",
          "value": 3
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-10",
          "value": 2.89
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-11",
          "value": 2.75
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-12",
          "value": 2.75
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-01",
          "value": 2.75
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-02",
          "value": 2.75
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-03",
          "value": 2.75
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-04",
          "value": 1.93
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-05",
          "value": 2
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-06",
          "value": 2
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-07",
          "value": 2
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-08",
          "value": 2.75
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-09",
          "value": 1.56
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-10",
          "value": 1.93
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-11",
          "value": 2
        }
      ],
      "trendLabel": "Median listed price in dollars per 1M tokens, per month, with 3 input tokens per output token.",
      "score": 47,
      "scoreReason": "Down 88% since October 2023, when the data starts.",
      "analysis": {
        "title": "Are prices falling per model?",
        "intro": "Mostly not. The median falls because newer, cheaper models arrive, not because existing models get repriced.",
        "points": [
          "Of 79 models listed both in 2025-11 and 2026-11, 71 kept their price, 4 got cheaper and 4 got more expensive.",
          "Cheaper tokens do not always mean cheaper work, because a task can use more tokens on a newer model.",
          "On the FrontierSWE benchmark, a hard task costs from about $99 of AI usage for a near-top score to about $1,030 for the top score.",
          "Everyday use can cost far less. OpenCode reports an average of about 5 cents per session on DeepSeek V4.1 Flash, the most used model on its platform (OpenCode Data, opencode.ai/data, updated Nov 1, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC)."
        ]
      },
      "fromHigh": "-88% from high",
      "status": "Getting cheaper",
      "rule": "Getting cheaper when the median listed price is lower than a year before.",
      "direction": "toward",
      "checks": [
        {
          "date": "2026-11-02",
          "value": "$2.00",
          "change": "-27%",
          "status": "Getting cheaper"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-11-01",
          "value": "$2.00",
          "change": "-27%",
          "status": "Getting cheaper"
        }
      ],
      "url": "/signals/token-prices",
      "api": "/api/signals/token-prices.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "product-launches",
      "name": "Product launches",
      "question": "Are people still launching new software?",
      "metric": "New products launched on Uneed, latest full month",
      "solvedIf": "Launching a product takes almost no effort",
      "value": "837",
      "change": "+194%",
      "trend": [
        {
          "label": "2024-02",
          "value": 66
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-03",
          "value": 56
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-04",
          "value": 108
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-05",
          "value": 96
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-06",
          "value": 85
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-07",
          "value": 116
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-08",
          "value": 141
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-09",
          "value": 157
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-10",
          "value": 261
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-11",
          "value": 288
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-12",
          "value": 376
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-01",
          "value": 393
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-02",
          "value": 345
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-03",
          "value": 398
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-04",
          "value": 377
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-05",
          "value": 409
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-06",
          "value": 419
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-07",
          "value": 406
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-08",
          "value": 389
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-09",
          "value": 264
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-10",
          "value": 285
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-11",
          "value": 329
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-12",
          "value": 358
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-01",
          "value": 328
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-02",
          "value": 307
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-03",
          "value": 309
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-04",
          "value": 321
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-05",
          "value": 483
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-06",
          "value": 577
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-07",
          "value": 663
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-08",
          "value": 676
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-09",
          "value": 844
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-10",
          "value": 837
        }
      ],
      "trendLabel": "Products launched on Uneed per month. A weak proxy, because it covers one launch site.",
      "caution": [
        "This is a weak proxy. It counts launches on one site, Uneed, not all new software.",
        "Uneed's own growth could explain part of this rise, and AI makes small products cheaper to build, so more launches may not mean more demand. Editing a product page can also move it to a different month.",
        "Treat it as a rough hint until we can compare it with other launch sites."
      ],
      "fromHigh": "-1% from high",
      "status": "More launches",
      "rule": "More launches when more products launch than in the same month a year before.",
      "direction": "away",
      "checks": [
        {
          "date": "2026-11-02",
          "value": "837",
          "change": "+194%",
          "status": "More launches"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-11-01",
          "value": "837",
          "change": "+194%",
          "status": "More launches"
        }
      ],
      "url": "/signals/product-launches",
      "api": "/api/signals/product-launches.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "coding-benchmarks",
      "name": "AI coding benchmarks",
      "question": "Can AI models do real engineering tasks?",
      "metric": "Best score so far on SWE-bench Verified, the share of real GitHub issues resolved",
      "solvedIf": "Models resolve nearly every real engineering task",
      "value": "83%",
      "change": "+12%",
      "trend": [
        {
          "label": "2024-11",
          "value": 31
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-12",
          "value": 31
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-01",
          "value": 31
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-02",
          "value": 61
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-03",
          "value": 61
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-04",
          "value": 62
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-05",
          "value": 71
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-06",
          "value": 71
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-07",
          "value": 71
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-08",
          "value": 74
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-09",
          "value": 74
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-10",
          "value": 74
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-11",
          "value": 77
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-12",
          "value": 77
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-01",
          "value": 77
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-02",
          "value": 79
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-03",
          "value": 79
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-04",
          "value": 83
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-05",
          "value": 83
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-06",
          "value": 83
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-07",
          "value": 83
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-08",
          "value": 83
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-09",
          "value": 83
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-10",
          "value": 83
        }
      ],
      "trendLabel": "Best SWE-bench Verified score so far, in percent, by model release month.",
      "caution": [
        "A benchmark is not a job. These tasks are fixed in advance and scored automatically, so a high score does not show that a model can run a real software project.",
        "Scores differ widely between benchmarks, and models can be tuned for well-known tests. New models are not always tested right away, so the latest result can lag."
      ],
      "score": 83,
      "scoreReason": "The best model resolves 83% of SWE-bench Verified tasks.",
      "analysis": {
        "title": "Other public benchmarks",
        "intro": "The best score depends heavily on the benchmark, so no single number settles this.",
        "points": [
          "MirrorCode: 79%, from claude-opus-5-5.",
          "DeepSWE: 74%, from gpt-6-astra.",
          "FrontierSWE: 66%, from gpt-6-astra.",
          "FrontierCode: 55%, from claude-opus-5-5.",
          "METR estimates the longest task a model completes half the time at about 17 hours of human work, with a range of 8 to 55 hours."
        ]
      },
      "fromHigh": "At its high",
      "status": "Improving",
      "rule": "Improving when the best score is higher than a year before.",
      "direction": "toward",
      "checks": [
        {
          "date": "2026-11-02",
          "value": "83%",
          "change": "+12%",
          "status": "Improving"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-11-01",
          "value": "83%",
          "change": "+12%",
          "status": "Improving"
        }
      ],
      "url": "/signals/coding-benchmarks",
      "api": "/api/signals/coding-benchmarks.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "agent-prs",
      "name": "AI pull requests",
      "question": "Are coding agents shipping code in public?",
      "metric": "Public GitHub pull requests clearly labelled as coming from coding agents, latest full month",
      "solvedIf": "Coding agents open most pull requests",
      "value": "1.5M",
      "change": "+177%",
      "trend": [
        {
          "label": "2024-12",
          "value": 1895
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-01",
          "value": 2363
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-02",
          "value": 2861
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-03",
          "value": 3322
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-04",
          "value": 4905
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-05",
          "value": 70099
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-06",
          "value": 400429
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-07",
          "value": 300846
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-08",
          "value": 434829
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-09",
          "value": 450995
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-10",
          "value": 559400
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-11",
          "value": 473850
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-12",
          "value": 474276
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-01",
          "value": 537322
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-02",
          "value": 676716
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-03",
          "value": 817335
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-04",
          "value": 735445
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-05",
          "value": 779567
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-06",
          "value": 646052
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-07",
          "value": 798827
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-08",
          "value": 906062
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-09",
          "value": 1092496
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-10",
          "value": 1549090
        }
      ],
      "trendLabel": "Public GitHub pull requests from identifiable coding agents, per month.",
      "caution": [
        "This undercounts AI work. Most agent-written code is opened under a person's account, so it looks human here. Only accounts and branch names that identify an agent are counted.",
        "It also counts opening, not merging or quality. Codex is matched by its default branch name, so some of those may be people, and a pull request can be automated without any AI."
      ],
      "score": 5,
      "scoreReason": "4.7% of public pull requests clearly come from agents, and most agent work is hidden.",
      "analysis": {
        "title": "Which agents",
        "intro": "These are 4.7% of all public pull requests, against 6.8% a year earlier.",
        "points": [
          "Codex: 1,381,684, against 418,960 a year earlier.",
          "Copilot: 61,241, against 120,409 a year earlier.",
          "Devin: 53,084, against 4,102 a year earlier.",
          "Cursor: 29,333, against 35 a year earlier.",
          "Claude: 12,280, against 148 a year earlier.",
          "Jules: 11,468, against 15,746 a year earlier."
        ]
      },
      "fromHigh": "At its high",
      "status": "More agents",
      "rule": "More agents when more agent pull requests are opened than in the same month a year before.",
      "direction": "toward",
      "checks": [
        {
          "date": "2026-11-02",
          "value": "1.5M",
          "change": "+177%",
          "status": "More agents"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-11-01",
          "value": "1.5M",
          "change": "+177%",
          "status": "More agents"
        }
      ],
      "url": "/signals/agent-prs",
      "api": "/api/signals/agent-prs.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "no-code-revenue",
      "name": "No-code revenue",
      "question": "Are people paying for tools that avoid writing code?",
      "metric": "Combined annual revenue of Wix and Shopify, latest full year",
      "solvedIf": "Most software gets built without writing code",
      "value": "$13.5B",
      "change": "+27%",
      "trend": [
        {
          "label": "2017",
          "value": 1.1
        },
        {
          "label": "2018",
          "value": 1.7
        },
        {
          "label": "2019",
          "value": 2.3
        },
        {
          "label": "2020",
          "value": 3.9
        },
        {
          "label": "2021",
          "value": 5.9
        },
        {
          "label": "2022",
          "value": 7
        },
        {
          "label": "2023",
          "value": 8.6
        },
        {
          "label": "2024",
          "value": 10.6
        },
        {
          "label": "2025",
          "value": 13.5
        }
      ],
      "trendLabel": "Combined annual revenue of Wix and Shopify, in billions of dollars.",
      "caution": [
        "Two public companies stand in for a whole category. Zapier, Webflow and Bubble are private, so they are not counted.",
        "Most of this revenue is not about avoiding code. Shopify earns much of its money from payments, and it grows with online shopping."
      ],
      "score": 29,
      "scoreReason": "Up 94% since ChatGPT launched.",
      "fromHigh": "At its high",
      "status": "Still growing",
      "rule": "Still growing when combined revenue is higher than the year before.",
      "direction": "toward",
      "checks": [
        {
          "date": "2026-11-02",
          "value": "$13.5B",
          "change": "+27%",
          "status": "Still growing"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-11-01",
          "value": "$13.5B",
          "change": "+27%",
          "status": "Still growing"
        }
      ],
      "url": "/signals/no-code-revenue",
      "api": "/api/signals/no-code-revenue.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "stack-overflow",
      "name": "Stack Overflow questions",
      "question": "Do developers still ask other people?",
      "metric": "Questions asked on Stack Overflow, latest full month",
      "solvedIf": "Developers stop asking people for help with code",
      "value": "1,046",
      "change": "-80%",
      "trend": [
        {
          "label": "2019-01",
          "value": 149522
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-02",
          "value": 146309
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-03",
          "value": 161040
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-04",
          "value": 153466
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-05",
          "value": 151285
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-06",
          "value": 135821
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-07",
          "value": 150965
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-08",
          "value": 137072
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-09",
          "value": 136849
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-10",
          "value": 152588
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-11",
          "value": 148199
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-12",
          "value": 132486
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-01",
          "value": 146583
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-02",
          "value": 145010
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-03",
          "value": 155866
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-04",
          "value": 182820
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-05",
          "value": 186376
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-06",
          "value": 171823
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-07",
          "value": 165978
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-08",
          "value": 148251
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-09",
          "value": 141728
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-10",
          "value": 141749
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-11",
          "value": 134890
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-12",
          "value": 133855
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-01",
          "value": 139816
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-02",
          "value": 131618
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-03",
          "value": 148696
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-04",
          "value": 135815
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-05",
          "value": 133732
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-06",
          "value": 128914
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-07",
          "value": 123920
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-08",
          "value": 122028
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-09",
          "value": 119729
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-10",
          "value": 118764
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-11",
          "value": 119017
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-12",
          "value": 112072
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-01",
          "value": 119166
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-02",
          "value": 113638
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-03",
          "value": 123261
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-04",
          "value": 113932
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-05",
          "value": 115910
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-06",
          "value": 111157
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-07",
          "value": 110578
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-08",
          "value": 112525
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-09",
          "value": 103417
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-10",
          "value": 105743
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-11",
          "value": 109120
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-12",
          "value": 96161
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-01",
          "value": 96622
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-02",
          "value": 85569
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-03",
          "value": 87123
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-04",
          "value": 68351
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-05",
          "value": 66341
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-06",
          "value": 63491
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-07",
          "value": 62557
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-08",
          "value": 59938
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-09",
          "value": 52684
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-10",
          "value": 52334
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-11",
          "value": 50273
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-12",
          "value": 42283
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-01",
          "value": 47570
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-02",
          "value": 45922
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-03",
          "value": 44707
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-04",
          "value": 42361
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-05",
          "value": 40021
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-06",
          "value": 31930
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-07",
          "value": 31435
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-08",
          "value": 27779
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-09",
          "value": 24730
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-10",
          "value": 23161
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-11",
          "value": 20806
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-12",
          "value": 17913
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-01",
          "value": 18182
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-02",
          "value": 15498
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-03",
          "value": 15075
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-04",
          "value": 11385
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-05",
          "value": 9645
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-06",
          "value": 7748
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-07",
          "value": 6621
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-08",
          "value": 5020
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-09",
          "value": 5072
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-10",
          "value": 5263
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-11",
          "value": 5347
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-12",
          "value": 4162
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-01",
          "value": 3614
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-02",
          "value": 3042
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-03",
          "value": 2987
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-04",
          "value": 2322
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-05",
          "value": 1986
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-06",
          "value": 1700
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-07",
          "value": 1175
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-08",
          "value": 1019
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-09",
          "value": 966
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-10",
          "value": 1046
        }
      ],
      "trendLabel": "Questions asked on Stack Overflow per month.",
      "caution": [
        "Questions were already falling before ChatGPT, and the site's own rules and popularity also play a part, so AI is only one possible cause.",
        "Developers may be asking AI, or asking elsewhere. Fewer questions does not mean fewer people are needed to build software. Deleted questions are not counted, which can change older months."
      ],
      "score": 100,
      "scoreReason": "Down 99% since ChatGPT launched. Falling to a tenth scores 100%.",
      "events": [
        {
          "month": "2022-11",
          "label": "ChatGPT launched"
        }
      ],
      "fromHigh": "-99% from high",
      "status": "Asking less",
      "rule": "Asking less when fewer questions are asked than in the same month a year before.",
      "direction": "toward",
      "checks": [
        {
          "date": "2026-11-02",
          "value": "1,046",
          "change": "-80%",
          "status": "Asking less"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-11-01",
          "value": "1,046",
          "change": "-80%",
          "status": "Asking less"
        }
      ],
      "url": "/signals/stack-overflow",
      "api": "/api/signals/stack-overflow.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "tech-output",
      "name": "Output per tech worker",
      "question": "Are fewer people producing more?",
      "metric": "US information sector real output per worker, Q4 2022 = 100",
      "solvedIf": "Output keeps rising while fewer people produce it",
      "value": "151.2",
      "change": "+14%",
      "trend": [
        {
          "label": "2019-01",
          "value": 73
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-04",
          "value": 75.9
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-07",
          "value": 77.7
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-10",
          "value": 78.4
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-01",
          "value": 77.3
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-04",
          "value": 76.7
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-07",
          "value": 81.3
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-10",
          "value": 82.4
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-01",
          "value": 85.5
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-04",
          "value": 89.3
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-07",
          "value": 91.5
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-10",
          "value": 95.4
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-01",
          "value": 94.2
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-04",
          "value": 95.9
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-07",
          "value": 98.1
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-10",
          "value": 100
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-01",
          "value": 102
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-04",
          "value": 104.5
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-07",
          "value": 108.9
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-10",
          "value": 111.1
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-01",
          "value": 112
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-04",
          "value": 113.5
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-07",
          "value": 115.5
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-10",
          "value": 117
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-01",
          "value": 119.2
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-04",
          "value": 122.7
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-07",
          "value": 125.9
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-10",
          "value": 127.6
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-01",
          "value": 132.4
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-04",
          "value": 135.3
        }
      ],
      "trendLabel": "US information sector real output and employment, both set to 100 in Q4 2022.",
      "caution": [
        "The information sector is not just software. It also includes telecoms, publishing, film and broadcasting.",
        "The cause is open. Output per worker was already growing about 7% a year before the pandemic, and layoffs, interest rates or pricing can raise it too, so only the gain above that earlier trend counts toward the score. These figures are US only."
      ],
      "score": 21,
      "scoreReason": "Output per worker is +16% against its 2015 to 2019 trend. Doubling that trend scores 100%.",
      "comparison": {
        "name": "Employment",
        "sameAxis": true,
        "trend": [
          {
            "label": "2019-01",
            "value": 91.7
          },
          {
            "label": "2019-04",
            "value": 92.2
          },
          {
            "label": "2019-07",
            "value": 92.4
          },
          {
            "label": "2019-10",
            "value": 92.9
          },
          {
            "label": "2020-01",
            "value": 93.6
          },
          {
            "label": "2020-04",
            "value": 84.6
          },
          {
            "label": "2020-07",
            "value": 85.5
          },
          {
            "label": "2020-10",
            "value": 86.9
          },
          {
            "label": "2021-01",
            "value": 89
          },
          {
            "label": "2021-04",
            "value": 90.6
          },
          {
            "label": "2021-07",
            "value": 93.5
          },
          {
            "label": "2021-10",
            "value": 95.2
          },
          {
            "label": "2022-01",
            "value": 96.6
          },
          {
            "label": "2022-04",
            "value": 98.5
          },
          {
            "label": "2022-07",
            "value": 99.8
          },
          {
            "label": "2022-10",
            "value": 100
          },
          {
            "label": "2023-01",
            "value": 98.4
          },
          {
            "label": "2023-04",
            "value": 97.8
          },
          {
            "label": "2023-07",
            "value": 96.2
          },
          {
            "label": "2023-10",
            "value": 95.4
          },
          {
            "label": "2024-01",
            "value": 95.3
          },
          {
            "label": "2024-04",
            "value": 94.6
          },
          {
            "label": "2024-07",
            "value": 93.8
          },
          {
            "label": "2024-10",
            "value": 93.1
          },
          {
            "label": "2025-01",
            "value": 92.6
          },
          {
            "label": "2025-04",
            "value": 92.3
          },
          {
            "label": "2025-07",
            "value": 92.2
          },
          {
            "label": "2025-10",
            "value": 91.8
          },
          {
            "label": "2026-01",
            "value": 90.3
          },
          {
            "label": "2026-04",
            "value": 89.5
          }
        ]
      },
      "events": [
        {
          "month": "2022-11",
          "label": "ChatGPT"
        }
      ],
      "analysis": {
        "title": "What the numbers show",
        "intro": "Output is +35% and employment is -10% since Q4 2022, but most of the gain follows an older trend.",
        "points": [
          "Output per worker already grew about 7% a year from 2015 to 2019.",
          "The latest figure is +16% against that trend, and that gap is what counts toward the score."
        ]
      },
      "fromHigh": "At its high",
      "status": "More per worker",
      "rule": "More per worker when output per worker is higher than a year before.",
      "direction": "toward",
      "checks": [
        {
          "date": "2026-11-02",
          "value": "151.2",
          "change": "+14%",
          "status": "More per worker"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-11-01",
          "value": "151.2",
          "change": "+14%",
          "status": "More per worker"
        }
      ],
      "url": "/signals/tech-output",
      "api": "/api/signals/tech-output.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "token-usage",
      "name": "AI token usage",
      "question": "Is AI use still growing?",
      "metric": "Tokens used through OpenRouter, latest full month",
      "solvedIf": "AI handles a large share of software work",
      "value": "787T",
      "change": "+3423%",
      "trend": [
        {
          "label": "2025-01",
          "value": 2
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-02",
          "value": 3
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-03",
          "value": 6
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-04",
          "value": 8
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-05",
          "value": 10
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-06",
          "value": 9
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-07",
          "value": 11
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-08",
          "value": 15
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-09",
          "value": 21
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-10",
          "value": 22
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-11",
          "value": 27
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-12",
          "value": 26
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-01",
          "value": 32
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-02",
          "value": 50
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-03",
          "value": 84
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-04",
          "value": 97
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-05",
          "value": 123
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-06",
          "value": 188
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-07",
          "value": 248
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-08",
          "value": 379
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-09",
          "value": 576
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-10",
          "value": 787
        }
      ],
      "trendLabel": "Tokens used through OpenRouter per month, in trillions.",
      "caution": [
        "This covers one service, not all AI. Part of this growth is OpenRouter itself becoming popular, and big companies mostly buy from AI labs directly.",
        "Tokens are not all software work, and cheap or free models can raise the count without much more being built. Newer models also use more tokens for the same task."
      ],
      "score": 85,
      "scoreReason": "353 times the tokens of January 2025, against a goal of 1,000 times.",
      "analysis": {
        "title": "Most used models",
        "intro": "No single model dominates. These are the top five of 2026-10.",
        "points": [
          "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash: 119T, 15% of all tokens.",
          "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash: 79T, 10% of all tokens.",
          "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash: 57T, 7% of all tokens.",
          "tencent/hy4-preview: 36T, 5% of all tokens.",
          "xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-flash: 35T, 5% of all tokens."
        ]
      },
      "fromHigh": "At its high",
      "status": "Growing",
      "rule": "Growing when more tokens are used than in the same month a year before.",
      "direction": "toward",
      "checks": [
        {
          "date": "2026-11-02",
          "value": "787T",
          "change": "+3423%",
          "status": "Growing"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-11-01",
          "value": "787T",
          "change": "+3423%",
          "status": "Growing"
        }
      ],
      "url": "/signals/token-usage",
      "api": "/api/signals/token-usage.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "programming-share",
      "name": "Programming share of AI",
      "question": "How much AI use is coding?",
      "metric": "Share of OpenRouter tokens estimated to be programming, latest full month",
      "solvedIf": "Most AI use goes into writing software",
      "value": "26%",
      "change": "-36%",
      "trend": [
        {
          "label": "2025-05",
          "value": 10
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-06",
          "value": 59
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-07",
          "value": 40
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-08",
          "value": 33
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-09",
          "value": 51
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-10",
          "value": 41
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-11",
          "value": 37
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-12",
          "value": 36
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-01",
          "value": 32
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-02",
          "value": 42
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-03",
          "value": 50
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-04",
          "value": 35
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-05",
          "value": 32
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-06",
          "value": 49
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-07",
          "value": 49
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-08",
          "value": 63
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-09",
          "value": 50
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-10",
          "value": 26
        }
      ],
      "trendLabel": "Estimated share of OpenRouter tokens used for programming, in percent, per month.",
      "caution": [
        "This covers one service, and developers may use it more than most people do, so it probably overstates the share across all AI.",
        "OpenRouter estimates this from a sample of traffic, so small changes can be noise."
      ],
      "score": 26,
      "scoreReason": "About 26% of OpenRouter tokens are programming.",
      "fromHigh": "-59% from high",
      "status": "Falling",
      "rule": "Rising when programming takes a larger share of tokens than a year before.",
      "direction": "away",
      "checks": [
        {
          "date": "2026-11-02",
          "value": "26%",
          "change": "-36%",
          "status": "Falling"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-11-01",
          "value": "26%",
          "change": "-36%",
          "status": "Falling"
        }
      ],
      "url": "/signals/programming-share",
      "api": "/api/signals/programming-share.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "coding-agents",
      "name": "Coding agent tokens",
      "question": "Are coding agents doing more work?",
      "metric": "Tokens used by the coding apps OpenRouter ranks, latest full month",
      "solvedIf": "Coding agents do most of the work",
      "value": "205T",
      "change": "+3179%",
      "trend": [
        {
          "label": "2025-01",
          "value": 0.9
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-02",
          "value": 1.3
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-03",
          "value": 2.2
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-04",
          "value": 3
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-05",
          "value": 2.3
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-06",
          "value": 2
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-07",
          "value": 2.5
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-08",
          "value": 4.2
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-09",
          "value": 6.8
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-10",
          "value": 6.2
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-11",
          "value": 7
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-12",
          "value": 4.3
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-01",
          "value": 4.5
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-02",
          "value": 13.4
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-03",
          "value": 29.9
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-04",
          "value": 30.8
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-05",
          "value": 28
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-06",
          "value": 47.5
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-07",
          "value": 60
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-08",
          "value": 101.3
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-09",
          "value": 143
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-10",
          "value": 204.6
        }
      ],
      "trendLabel": "Tokens used by ranked coding apps on OpenRouter per month, in trillions.",
      "caution": [
        "Tools like Cursor and direct use of AI labs may not appear here, so this undercounts agent use.",
        "The list of ranked apps grew over time, and more tokens can mean less efficient work rather than more of it."
      ],
      "score": 79,
      "scoreReason": "227 times the tokens of January 2025, against a goal of 1,000 times.",
      "analysis": {
        "title": "Most used coding apps",
        "intro": "The top five of 2026-10.",
        "points": [
          "Hermes Agent: 55T.",
          "Claude Code: 46T.",
          "Kilo Code: 26T.",
          "Codex: 15T.",
          "Cline: 14T."
        ]
      },
      "fromHigh": "At its high",
      "status": "Growing",
      "rule": "Growing when ranked coding apps use more tokens than in the same month a year before.",
      "direction": "toward",
      "checks": [
        {
          "date": "2026-11-02",
          "value": "205T",
          "change": "+3179%",
          "status": "Growing"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-11-01",
          "value": "205T",
          "change": "+3179%",
          "status": "Growing"
        }
      ],
      "url": "/signals/coding-agents",
      "api": "/api/signals/coding-agents.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "software-spending",
      "name": "Business software spending",
      "question": "Are businesses still paying for software?",
      "metric": "US private investment in software, adjusted for inflation, latest quarter, in billions of dollars a year",
      "solvedIf": "Businesses spend less because software gets cheap",
      "value": "$986B",
      "change": "+13%",
      "trend": [
        {
          "label": "2016-01",
          "value": 326
        },
        {
          "label": "2016-04",
          "value": 335
        },
        {
          "label": "2016-07",
          "value": 346
        },
        {
          "label": "2016-10",
          "value": 355
        },
        {
          "label": "2017-01",
          "value": 366
        },
        {
          "label": "2017-04",
          "value": 376
        },
        {
          "label": "2017-07",
          "value": 389
        },
        {
          "label": "2017-10",
          "value": 401
        },
        {
          "label": "2018-01",
          "value": 414
        },
        {
          "label": "2018-04",
          "value": 429
        },
        {
          "label": "2018-07",
          "value": 441
        },
        {
          "label": "2018-10",
          "value": 452
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-01",
          "value": 450
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-04",
          "value": 459
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-07",
          "value": 470
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-10",
          "value": 487
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-01",
          "value": 503
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-04",
          "value": 501
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-07",
          "value": 509
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-10",
          "value": 530
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-01",
          "value": 559
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-04",
          "value": 580
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-07",
          "value": 595
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-10",
          "value": 614
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-01",
          "value": 646
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-04",
          "value": 668
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-07",
          "value": 682
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-10",
          "value": 702
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-01",
          "value": 704
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-04",
          "value": 709
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-07",
          "value": 718
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-10",
          "value": 735
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-01",
          "value": 754
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-04",
          "value": 762
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-07",
          "value": 766
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-10",
          "value": 777
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-01",
          "value": 814
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-04",
          "value": 867
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-07",
          "value": 873
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-10",
          "value": 878
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-01",
          "value": 932
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-04",
          "value": 963
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-07",
          "value": 986
        }
      ],
      "trendLabel": "US real private fixed investment in software, in billions of 2017 dollars a year.",
      "caution": [
        "Higher spending can also mean software is more useful, so a rise does not prove it is far from solved. This counts investment by US businesses, and not all software purchases."
      ],
      "score": 0,
      "scoreReason": "Against real GDP: Up 28% since ChatGPT launched.",
      "fromHigh": "At its high",
      "status": "Still rising",
      "rule": "Still rising when real investment is higher than a year before.",
      "direction": "away",
      "checks": [
        {
          "date": "2026-11-02",
          "value": "$986B",
          "change": "+13%",
          "status": "Still rising"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-11-01",
          "value": "$986B",
          "change": "+13%",
          "status": "Still rising"
        }
      ],
      "url": "/signals/software-spending",
      "api": "/api/signals/software-spending.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "tech-hiring",
      "name": "Information sector openings",
      "question": "Is the wider tech and media sector hiring?",
      "metric": "US information sector job openings, average over the last 12 months, in thousands",
      "solvedIf": "Openings keep falling",
      "value": "94K",
      "change": "-26%",
      "trend": [
        {
          "label": "2019-12",
          "value": 141
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-01",
          "value": 140
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-02",
          "value": 140
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-03",
          "value": 138
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-04",
          "value": 139
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-05",
          "value": 134
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-06",
          "value": 131
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-07",
          "value": 126
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-08",
          "value": 122
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-09",
          "value": 117
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-10",
          "value": 115
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-11",
          "value": 112
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-12",
          "value": 111
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-01",
          "value": 115
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-02",
          "value": 113
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-03",
          "value": 112
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-04",
          "value": 113
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-05",
          "value": 118
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-06",
          "value": 122
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-07",
          "value": 135
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-08",
          "value": 144
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-09",
          "value": 152
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-10",
          "value": 159
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-11",
          "value": 167
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-12",
          "value": 178
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-01",
          "value": 183
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-02",
          "value": 195
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-03",
          "value": 208
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-04",
          "value": 222
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-05",
          "value": 229
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-06",
          "value": 235
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-07",
          "value": 237
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-08",
          "value": 237
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-09",
          "value": 237
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-10",
          "value": 238
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-11",
          "value": 238
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-12",
          "value": 224
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-01",
          "value": 213
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-02",
          "value": 204
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-03",
          "value": 195
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-04",
          "value": 183
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-05",
          "value": 177
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-06",
          "value": 170
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-07",
          "value": 162
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-08",
          "value": 158
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-09",
          "value": 147
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-10",
          "value": 138
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-11",
          "value": 132
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-12",
          "value": 137
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-01",
          "value": 142
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-02",
          "value": 141
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-03",
          "value": 141
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-04",
          "value": 135
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-05",
          "value": 132
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-06",
          "value": 128
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-07",
          "value": 124
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-08",
          "value": 120
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-09",
          "value": 122
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-10",
          "value": 128
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-11",
          "value": 126
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-12",
          "value": 123
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-01",
          "value": 117
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-02",
          "value": 117
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-03",
          "value": 115
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-04",
          "value": 119
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-05",
          "value": 118
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-06",
          "value": 119
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-07",
          "value": 124
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-08",
          "value": 128
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-09",
          "value": 128
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-10",
          "value": 123
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-11",
          "value": 121
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-12",
          "value": 121
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-01",
          "value": 121
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-02",
          "value": 117
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-03",
          "value": 114
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-04",
          "value": 109
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-05",
          "value": 106
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-06",
          "value": 103
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-07",
          "value": 95
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-08",
          "value": 94
        }
      ],
      "trendLabel": "US information sector job openings, rolling 12-month average, in thousands.",
      "caution": [
        "This is the whole US information sector, including telecoms, publishing, film and broadcasting, not just software. For software roles, see the Jobs signal.",
        "Hiring also moves with the economy and interest rates, not only AI."
      ],
      "score": 40,
      "scoreReason": "Down 61% since ChatGPT launched.",
      "analysis": {
        "title": "How this fits with Jobs",
        "intro": "Both show a big fall since 2022. They differ over the last year because they measure different things.",
        "points": [
          "Since ChatGPT launched, average openings here are down 61%, and Indeed's software postings are down 48%.",
          "The Jobs signal counts software roles on Indeed, up 24% in a year. This one covers the whole sector, including telecoms, publishing and media, and averages 12 noisy months, so it reacts more slowly.",
          "The sector averaged 74K hires and 46K layoffs a month over the same 12 months."
        ]
      },
      "fromHigh": "-61% from high",
      "status": "Hiring less",
      "rule": "Hiring more when average openings are higher than a year before.",
      "direction": "toward",
      "checks": [
        {
          "date": "2026-11-02",
          "value": "94K",
          "change": "-26%",
          "status": "Hiring less"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-11-01",
          "value": "94K",
          "change": "-26%",
          "status": "Hiring less"
        }
      ],
      "url": "/signals/tech-hiring",
      "api": "/api/signals/tech-hiring.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "new-businesses",
      "name": "New tech businesses",
      "question": "Are more tech businesses starting?",
      "metric": "New US business applications in the information sector, latest full month",
      "solvedIf": "Starting a software business takes almost no effort",
      "value": "13,806",
      "change": "+49%",
      "trend": [
        {
          "label": "2016-01",
          "value": 5686
        },
        {
          "label": "2016-02",
          "value": 5267
        },
        {
          "label": "2016-03",
          "value": 5090
        },
        {
          "label": "2016-04",
          "value": 5293
        },
        {
          "label": "2016-05",
          "value": 5419
        },
        {
          "label": "2016-06",
          "value": 4751
        },
        {
          "label": "2016-07",
          "value": 5441
        },
        {
          "label": "2016-08",
          "value": 5208
        },
        {
          "label": "2016-09",
          "value": 5413
        },
        {
          "label": "2016-10",
          "value": 5228
        },
        {
          "label": "2016-11",
          "value": 5367
        },
        {
          "label": "2016-12",
          "value": 5427
        },
        {
          "label": "2017-01",
          "value": 5888
        },
        {
          "label": "2017-02",
          "value": 5858
        },
        {
          "label": "2017-03",
          "value": 5979
        },
        {
          "label": "2017-04",
          "value": 6042
        },
        {
          "label": "2017-05",
          "value": 5931
        },
        {
          "label": "2017-06",
          "value": 6156
        },
        {
          "label": "2017-07",
          "value": 6280
        },
        {
          "label": "2017-08",
          "value": 6251
        },
        {
          "label": "2017-09",
          "value": 5953
        },
        {
          "label": "2017-10",
          "value": 5930
        },
        {
          "label": "2017-11",
          "value": 6344
        },
        {
          "label": "2017-12",
          "value": 6007
        },
        {
          "label": "2018-01",
          "value": 6559
        },
        {
          "label": "2018-02",
          "value": 6109
        },
        {
          "label": "2018-03",
          "value": 6249
        },
        {
          "label": "2018-04",
          "value": 6183
        },
        {
          "label": "2018-05",
          "value": 6177
        },
        {
          "label": "2018-06",
          "value": 6334
        },
        {
          "label": "2018-07",
          "value": 5962
        },
        {
          "label": "2018-08",
          "value": 5893
        },
        {
          "label": "2018-09",
          "value": 6140
        },
        {
          "label": "2018-10",
          "value": 6117
        },
        {
          "label": "2018-11",
          "value": 5910
        },
        {
          "label": "2018-12",
          "value": 6212
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-01",
          "value": 5515
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-02",
          "value": 6165
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-03",
          "value": 6175
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-04",
          "value": 6210
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-05",
          "value": 6139
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-06",
          "value": 6175
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-07",
          "value": 5969
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-08",
          "value": 6168
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-09",
          "value": 5943
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-10",
          "value": 6319
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-11",
          "value": 6197
        },
        {
          "label": "2019-12",
          "value": 6765
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-01",
          "value": 5848
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-02",
          "value": 6641
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-03",
          "value": 5598
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-04",
          "value": 5603
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-05",
          "value": 6798
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-06",
          "value": 8135
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-07",
          "value": 11276
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-08",
          "value": 10396
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-09",
          "value": 9496
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-10",
          "value": 8870
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-11",
          "value": 8302
        },
        {
          "label": "2020-12",
          "value": 7277
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-01",
          "value": 10016
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-02",
          "value": 9109
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-03",
          "value": 9271
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-04",
          "value": 9882
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-05",
          "value": 10156
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-06",
          "value": 8848
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-07",
          "value": 8987
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-08",
          "value": 8642
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-09",
          "value": 8417
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-10",
          "value": 8543
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-11",
          "value": 8703
        },
        {
          "label": "2021-12",
          "value": 8636
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-01",
          "value": 8643
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-02",
          "value": 8581
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-03",
          "value": 7645
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-04",
          "value": 8360
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-05",
          "value": 8377
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-06",
          "value": 8106
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-07",
          "value": 8228
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-08",
          "value": 7969
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-09",
          "value": 8023
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-10",
          "value": 8229
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-11",
          "value": 7920
        },
        {
          "label": "2022-12",
          "value": 8167
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-01",
          "value": 8100
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-02",
          "value": 8560
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-03",
          "value": 8498
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-04",
          "value": 8698
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-05",
          "value": 8252
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-06",
          "value": 8687
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-07",
          "value": 9198
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-08",
          "value": 8657
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-09",
          "value": 8226
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-10",
          "value": 8241
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-11",
          "value": 8271
        },
        {
          "label": "2023-12",
          "value": 8191
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-01",
          "value": 8384
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-02",
          "value": 8166
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-03",
          "value": 8036
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-04",
          "value": 7749
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-05",
          "value": 7939
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-06",
          "value": 8165
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-07",
          "value": 8269
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-08",
          "value": 8825
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-09",
          "value": 8600
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-10",
          "value": 8364
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-11",
          "value": 8558
        },
        {
          "label": "2024-12",
          "value": 9253
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-01",
          "value": 7594
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-02",
          "value": 8650
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-03",
          "value": 8597
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-04",
          "value": 8644
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-05",
          "value": 8930
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-06",
          "value": 9071
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-07",
          "value": 9299
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-08",
          "value": 9619
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-09",
          "value": 9252
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-10",
          "value": 9361
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-11",
          "value": 10185
        },
        {
          "label": "2025-12",
          "value": 10250
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-01",
          "value": 10680
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-02",
          "value": 11126
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-03",
          "value": 11528
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-04",
          "value": 12117
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-05",
          "value": 12523
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-06",
          "value": 13075
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-07",
          "value": 13176
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-08",
          "value": 13231
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-09",
          "value": 13806
        }
      ],
      "trendLabel": "New US business applications in the information sector per month.",
      "caution": [
        "An application is not a working business, and this sector also includes publishing and media. Applications jumped during the pandemic for reasons unrelated to AI."
      ],
      "score": 24,
      "scoreReason": "Up 74% since ChatGPT launched.",
      "fromHigh": "At its high",
      "status": "More applications",
      "rule": "More applications when more are filed than in the same month a year before.",
      "direction": "toward",
      "checks": [
        {
          "date": "2026-11-02",
          "value": "13,806",
          "change": "+49%",
          "status": "More applications"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-11-01",
          "value": "13,806",
          "change": "+49%",
          "status": "More applications"
        }
      ],
      "url": "/signals/new-businesses",
      "api": "/api/signals/new-businesses.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "model-opinions",
      "name": "What AI models say",
      "question": "Do AI models think software is solved?",
      "metric": "Median answer from AI models asked to score it from 0% to 100%",
      "solvedIf": "Models say it is close to 100%",
      "value": "20%",
      "trend": [
        {
          "label": "GPT-4",
          "value": 35
        },
        {
          "label": "Mistral Large",
          "value": 15
        },
        {
          "label": "GPT-4o",
          "value": 40
        },
        {
          "label": "Llama 3.1 8B Instruct",
          "value": 20
        },
        {
          "label": "Llama 3.3 70B Instruct",
          "value": 20
        },
        {
          "label": "DeepSeek V3",
          "value": 20
        },
        {
          "label": "Llama 4 Maverick",
          "value": 20
        },
        {
          "label": "Gemini 2.5 Flash",
          "value": 5
        },
        {
          "label": "GPT-5",
          "value": 20
        },
        {
          "label": "Claude Sonnet 4.6",
          "value": 18
        },
        {
          "label": "GPT-5.5",
          "value": 30
        },
        {
          "label": "Claude Opus 4.8",
          "value": 15
        },
        {
          "label": "Gemini 3.8 Flash",
          "value": 20
        },
        {
          "label": "DeepSeek V4.1 Flash",
          "value": 20
        },
        {
          "label": "Grok 4.7",
          "value": 25
        },
        {
          "label": "Claude Opus 5.5",
          "value": 35
        },
        {
          "label": "GPT-6 Sol",
          "value": 30
        },
        {
          "label": "Claude Sonnet 5.5",
          "value": 22
        },
        {
          "label": "GPT-6.1 Sol",
          "value": 25
        },
        {
          "label": "Gemini 4 Argon",
          "value": 25
        }
      ],
      "trendScale": "category",
      "trendLabel": "Each model's median answer, in percent, ordered by release date. These are opinions, not measurements.",
      "caution": [
        "This is opinion, not evidence, so it does not affect the solved score. An answer reflects a model's training data and tuning, and the companies selling AI built these models.",
        "Older models only know the world up to their training date, and each model answered just three times. Different wording could change these scores."
      ],
      "prompt": "Is software solved?\n\nBy \"solved\" I mean that AI can do nearly all the software engineering work humans do today, including deciding what to build, writing it, running it and fixing it, with little human oversight and at low cost, so that few human software engineers are still needed.\n\nGive your honest assessment of how close the world is to that today, as far as you know.\n\nReply with JSON only, in this exact format:\n{\"score\": <a whole number from 0 to 100, where 0 means not at all and 100 means fully solved>, \"reason\": \"<one sentence>\"}",
      "analysis": {
        "title": "Answers by model",
        "intro": "Each model was asked once, most recently on Nov 1, 2026. Oldest model first. No model scored above 40%.",
        "points": [
          "GPT-4 (2023-05-28): 35%.",
          "Mistral Large (2024-02-26): 15%.",
          "GPT-4o (2024-05-13): 40%.",
          "Llama 3.1 8B Instruct (2024-07-23): 20%.",
          "Llama 3.3 70B Instruct (2024-12-06): 20%.",
          "DeepSeek V3 (2024-12-26): 20%.",
          "Llama 4 Maverick (2025-04-05): 20%.",
          "Gemini 2.5 Flash (2025-06-17): 5%.",
          "GPT-5 (2025-08-07): 20%.",
          "Claude Sonnet 4.6 (2026-02-17): 18%.",
          "GPT-5.5 (2026-04-24): 30%.",
          "Claude Opus 4.8 (2026-05-27): 15%.",
          "Gemini 3.8 Flash (2026-09-02): 20%.",
          "DeepSeek V4.1 Flash (2026-09-10): 20%.",
          "Grok 4.7 (2026-09-21): 25%.",
          "Claude Opus 5.5 (2026-09-22): 35%.",
          "GPT-6 Sol (2026-09-22): 30%.",
          "Claude Sonnet 5.5 (2026-09-28): 22%.",
          "GPT-6.1 Sol (2026-09-29): 25%.",
          "Gemini 4 Argon (2026-10-13): 25%."
        ]
      },
      "status": "Say not yet",
      "rule": "Say not yet when the median answer is under 50.",
      "direction": "away",
      "checks": [
        {
          "date": "2026-11-02",
          "value": "20%",
          "status": "Say not yet"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-11-01",
          "value": "20%",
          "status": "Say not yet"
        }
      ],
      "url": "/signals/model-opinions",
      "api": "/api/signals/model-opinions.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "outsourcing",
      "name": "Software outsourcing revenue",
      "question": "Are companies still paying others to build software?",
      "metric": "Combined annual revenue of Accenture, Cognizant, Infosys, EPAM and Globant, latest full year",
      "solvedIf": "Revenue falls because companies no longer hire people to build software",
      "value": "$118B",
      "change": "+7%",
      "trend": [
        {
          "label": "2018",
          "value": 70
        },
        {
          "label": "2019",
          "value": 75
        },
        {
          "label": "2020",
          "value": 77
        },
        {
          "label": "2021",
          "value": 88
        },
        {
          "label": "2022",
          "value": 104
        },
        {
          "label": "2023",
          "value": 108
        },
        {
          "label": "2024",
          "value": 110
        },
        {
          "label": "2025",
          "value": 118
        }
      ],
      "trendLabel": "Combined annual revenue of five public outsourcing companies, in billions of dollars.",
      "caution": [
        "AI can also help these firms, because companies may pay them to adopt it. Revenue can also hold up while staff numbers fall.",
        "Accenture is the largest here and is mostly consulting, not software. Acquisitions can add revenue and staff, and fiscal years differ by company."
      ],
      "score": 0,
      "scoreReason": "After inflation: Up 4% since ChatGPT launched.",
      "analysis": {
        "title": "Revenue per employee",
        "intro": "These firms charge for people, so this shows whether revenue is separating from headcount. From 2023 to 2025, it moved +6%.",
        "points": [
          "Revenue per employee went from $72K to $76K.",
          "Revenue moved +9% and employees +3% over the same period.",
          "Accenture: $69.7B and 779,000 employees in 2025.",
          "Cognizant: $21.1B and 351,600 employees in 2025.",
          "Infosys: $19.3B and 323,578 employees in 2025.",
          "EPAM: $5.5B and 62,850 employees in 2025.",
          "Globant: $2.5B and 28,773 employees in 2025."
        ]
      },
      "fromHigh": "At its high",
      "status": "Still growing",
      "rule": "Still growing when combined revenue is higher than the year before.",
      "direction": "away",
      "checks": [
        {
          "date": "2026-11-02",
          "value": "$118B",
          "change": "+7%",
          "status": "Still growing"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-11-01",
          "value": "$118B",
          "change": "+7%",
          "status": "Still growing"
        }
      ],
      "url": "/signals/outsourcing",
      "api": "/api/signals/outsourcing.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "ai-built-sites",
      "name": "AI-built sites",
      "question": "Are people putting sites built with AI on the web?",
      "metric": "Crawled sites built on Lovable and Emergent, latest month",
      "solvedIf": "Most new sites get built by AI",
      "value": "6,768",
      "trend": [
        {
          "label": "2025-12",
          "value": 2137
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-01",
          "value": 2367
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-02",
          "value": 2788
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-03",
          "value": 3210
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-04",
          "value": 4056
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-05",
          "value": 4746
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-06",
          "value": 5361
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-07",
          "value": 6215
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-08",
          "value": 6630
        },
        {
          "label": "2026-09",
          "value": 6768
        }
      ],
      "trendLabel": "Crawled sites built on Lovable and Emergent per month.",
      "caution": [
        "Two builders stand in for a whole category, and they are only detected from December 2025, so part of the early growth could be detection improving.",
        "The crawl only lists sites with enough Chrome traffic, so most new or small sites are missing, and sites built with AI elsewhere look hand-built.",
        "It counts for a quarter as much as other signals in the score, because its history is short and its base is tiny."
      ],
      "score": 17,
      "scoreReason": "3.2 times the sites of December 2025, against a goal of 1,000 times. Counts a quarter as much as other signals here.",
      "analysis": {
        "title": "What is happening to WordPress",
        "intro": "WordPress is losing share of the web, but this data shows the fall, not its cause, and AI builders are far too small to explain it.",
        "points": [
          "WordPress ran 14.8% of the top 1 million sites in 2026-09, against 17.9% a year earlier.",
          "It ran 31.1% of all crawled sites in 2026-09, against 34.2% a year earlier.",
          "Sites on Lovable and Emergent are 6,768, against 2,714,694 on WordPress."
        ]
      },
      "fromHigh": "At its high",
      "status": "Growing",
      "rule": "Growing when more sites are detected than three months before.",
      "direction": "toward",
      "checks": [
        {
          "date": "2026-11-02",
          "value": "6,768",
          "status": "Growing"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-11-01",
          "value": "6,768",
          "status": "Growing"
        }
      ],
      "url": "/signals/ai-built-sites",
      "api": "/api/signals/ai-built-sites.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "task-cost",
      "name": "Cost of a hard task",
      "question": "How much does a hard coding task cost?",
      "metric": "AI usage cost per FrontierSWE task for a near-top score",
      "solvedIf": "A hard coding task costs $1 in AI usage",
      "value": "$99",
      "score": 33,
      "scoreReason": "About $99 of AI usage per FrontierSWE task for a near-top score, against a goal of $1.",
      "checks": [
        {
          "date": "2026-11-02",
          "value": "$99"
        }
      ],
      "url": "/signals/task-cost",
      "api": "/api/signals/task-cost.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "task-length",
      "name": "AI task length",
      "question": "How long a task can AI complete?",
      "metric": "Human working hours of tasks completed with 50% success",
      "solvedIf": "AI completes tasks lasting a working year (2,000 hours)",
      "value": "17 hours",
      "score": 59,
      "scoreReason": "Best model: tasks of about 17 hours half the time, against a goal of a working year.",
      "checks": [
        {
          "date": "2026-11-02",
          "value": "17 hours"
        }
      ],
      "url": "/signals/task-length",
      "api": "/api/signals/task-length.json"
    }
  ],
  "credits": [
    {
      "name": "GitHub pull request search",
      "url": "https://docs.github.com/en/search-github/searching-on-github/searching-issues-and-pull-requests",
      "signal": "agent-prs",
      "license": "No data license published",
      "credit": "Counts derived from the GitHub search API."
    },
    {
      "name": "AI company job boards",
      "url": "https://openai.com/careers/",
      "signal": "ai-company-jobs",
      "license": "No data license published",
      "credit": "Counts derived from public job boards at OpenAI, Anthropic, Mistral, xAI, Cohere, Perplexity, Cursor, Cognition, Replit, Lovable and Factory."
    },
    {
      "name": "Bitbucket Status",
      "url": "https://bitbucket.status.atlassian.com/",
      "signal": "outages",
      "license": "No data license published",
      "credit": "Counts derived from the public Bitbucket status page."
    },
    {
      "name": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics",
      "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/",
      "signal": "jobs",
      "license": "US government work",
      "credit": "Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. BLS has not reviewed or endorsed this site or its results."
    },
    {
      "name": "BLS producer price index",
      "url": "https://www.bls.gov/ppi/",
      "signal": "prices",
      "license": "US government work",
      "credit": "Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. BLS has not reviewed or endorsed this site or its results."
    },
    {
      "name": "Bluesky",
      "url": "https://bsky.app/",
      "signal": "sentiment",
      "license": "No data license published",
      "credit": "Totals derived from public posts on Bluesky through its public API. Posts belong to their authors and are not stored."
    },
    {
      "name": "Census Business Formation Statistics",
      "url": "https://www.census.gov/econ/bfs/",
      "signal": "new-businesses",
      "license": "US government public data",
      "credit": "U.S. Census Bureau, Business Formation Statistics. This site is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau."
    },
    {
      "name": "CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities",
      "url": "https://www.cisa.gov/known-exploited-vulnerabilities-catalog",
      "signal": "security",
      "license": "CC0 1.0",
      "credit": "Data from the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog. Use does not imply endorsement by CISA or DHS. We count entries and publish the results."
    },
    {
      "name": "Claude Status",
      "url": "https://status.claude.com/",
      "signal": "outages",
      "license": "No data license published",
      "credit": "Counts derived from the public Claude status page."
    },
    {
      "name": "DigitalOcean Status",
      "url": "https://status.digitalocean.com/",
      "signal": "outages",
      "license": "No data license published",
      "credit": "Counts derived from the public DigitalOcean status page."
    },
    {
      "name": "Discord Status",
      "url": "https://discordstatus.com/",
      "signal": "outages",
      "license": "No data license published",
      "credit": "Counts derived from the public Discord status page."
    },
    {
      "name": "Dropbox Status",
      "url": "https://status.dropbox.com/",
      "signal": "outages",
      "license": "No data license published",
      "credit": "Counts derived from the public Dropbox status page."
    },
    {
      "name": "BLS job openings and hires",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100JOL",
      "signal": "tech-hiring",
      "license": "Public domain, citation requested",
      "credit": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, JOLTS, information sector [JTU5100JOL, JTU5100HIL, JTU5100LDL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis."
    },
    {
      "name": "BEA software investment",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B985RX1Q020SBEA",
      "signal": "software-spending",
      "license": "Public domain, citation requested",
      "credit": "U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, real private fixed investment in software [B985RX1Q020SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Not endorsed or certified by BEA."
    },
    {
      "name": "Epoch AI Benchmarking Hub",
      "url": "https://epoch.ai/benchmarks",
      "signal": "coding-benchmarks",
      "license": "CC BY 4.0",
      "credit": "Epoch AI, 'Capabilities & benchmarking'. Published online at epoch.ai. Retrieved from https://epoch.ai/benchmarks. Results collected from other projects keep their original terms, and we quote only top scores from those."
    },
    {
      "name": "Exploit-DB",
      "url": "https://www.exploit-db.com/",
      "signal": "security",
      "license": "GPL-2.0",
      "credit": "Dates from the Exploit Database by OffSec. We count entries and publish the results."
    },
    {
      "name": "Federal funds rate",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
      "signal": "jobs",
      "license": "Public domain, citation requested",
      "credit": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Federal Funds Effective Rate [FEDFUNDS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis."
    },
    {
      "name": "GitHub MCP repositories",
      "url": "https://github.com/topics/mcp-server",
      "signal": "agent-tools",
      "license": "No data license published",
      "credit": "Counts derived from the GitHub search API."
    },
    {
      "name": "GitHub Status",
      "url": "https://www.githubstatus.com/",
      "signal": "outages",
      "license": "No data license published",
      "credit": "Counts derived from the public GitHub status page."
    },
    {
      "name": "Hacker News",
      "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/submitted?id=whoishiring",
      "signal": "sentiment",
      "license": "No data license published",
      "credit": "Counts derived from the Hacker News API and the Algolia HN Search API, Y Combinator. Comments belong to their authors and are not stored."
    },
    {
      "name": "Have I Been Pwned",
      "url": "https://haveibeenpwned.com/",
      "signal": "security",
      "license": "CC BY 4.0",
      "credit": "Breach data from Have I Been Pwned (haveibeenpwned.com). We count verified breaches and publish the results."
    },
    {
      "name": "HTTP Archive",
      "url": "https://httparchive.org/reports/techreport/landing",
      "signal": "ai-built-sites",
      "license": "No data license published",
      "credit": "Source: HTTP Archive, httparchive.org. Counts derived from its Technology Report API, which detects technologies with Wappalyzer. No formal data license is published. A maintainer has said on its forum that people are free to use the data, and asked for this citation."
    },
    {
      "name": "Indeed Hiring Lab",
      "url": "https://github.com/hiring-lab/job_postings_tracker",
      "signal": "jobs",
      "license": "CC BY 4.0",
      "credit": "Data from the Indeed Hiring Lab Job Postings Index, licensed under CC BY 4.0. We calculate changes and comparisons from the published index."
    },
    {
      "name": "GitHub Innovation Graph",
      "url": "https://github.com/github/innovationgraph",
      "signal": "code-activity",
      "license": "CC0 1.0",
      "credit": "Data from the GitHub Innovation Graph, released under CC0 1.0."
    },
    {
      "name": "Linode Status",
      "url": "https://status.linode.com/",
      "signal": "outages",
      "license": "No data license published",
      "credit": "Counts derived from the public Linode status page."
    },
    {
      "name": "LiteLLM model prices",
      "url": "https://github.com/BerriAI/litellm",
      "signal": "token-prices",
      "license": "MIT",
      "credit": "Calculated from the LiteLLM model price file by BerriAI, MIT License."
    },
    {
      "name": "Official MCP Registry",
      "url": "https://registry.modelcontextprotocol.io/",
      "signal": "agent-tools",
      "license": "CC0 1.0",
      "credit": "This data comes from the Official MCP Registry, dedicated to the public domain under CC0 1.0. We are not affiliated with or endorsed by the registry."
    },
    {
      "name": "METR Time Horizons",
      "url": "https://metr.org/time-horizons/",
      "signal": "coding-benchmarks",
      "license": "No data license found",
      "credit": "Figure quoted from METR Time Horizons."
    },
    {
      "name": "Our survey of AI models",
      "url": "https://openrouter.ai/models",
      "signal": "model-opinions",
      "license": "Our own run",
      "credit": "Our own survey of AI models, run through OpenRouter."
    },
    {
      "name": "MongoDB Cloud Status",
      "url": "https://status.mongodb.com/",
      "signal": "outages",
      "license": "No data license published",
      "credit": "Counts derived from the public MongoDB Cloud status page."
    },
    {
      "name": "Netlify Status",
      "url": "https://www.netlifystatus.com/",
      "signal": "outages",
      "license": "No data license published",
      "credit": "Counts derived from the public Netlify status page."
    },
    {
      "name": "SEC filings for Wix and Shopify",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/search-filings/edgar-application-programming-interfaces",
      "signal": "no-code-revenue",
      "license": "US government public data",
      "credit": "Revenue from filings on SEC EDGAR."
    },
    {
      "name": "npm",
      "url": "https://www.npmjs.com/",
      "signal": "code-activity",
      "license": "No data license published",
      "credit": "Counts derived from the npm public downloads API."
    },
    {
      "name": "National Vulnerability Database",
      "url": "https://nvd.nist.gov/",
      "signal": "bugs",
      "license": "US government work",
      "credit": "This product uses data from the NVD but is not endorsed or certified by the NVD. We count entries and publish the results."
    },
    {
      "name": "New York Fed recent graduates data",
      "url": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market",
      "signal": "jobs",
      "license": "New York Fed Terms of Use, with attribution",
      "credit": "© 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Content from the New York Fed subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org."
    },
    {
      "name": "OpenCode Data",
      "url": "https://opencode.ai/data",
      "signal": "token-prices",
      "license": "No data license published",
      "credit": "OpenCode Data (opencode.ai/data), updated Nov 1, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC."
    },
    {
      "name": "OpenRouter",
      "url": "https://openrouter.ai/rankings",
      "signal": "token-usage",
      "license": "CC BY 4.0",
      "credit": "Source: OpenRouter (openrouter.ai/rankings), as of 2026-11-01T09:28:31.358Z. Licensed under CC BY 4.0."
    },
    {
      "name": "OpenRouter programming and app data",
      "url": "https://openrouter.ai/rankings",
      "signal": "programming-share",
      "license": "CC BY 4.0",
      "credit": "Source: OpenRouter (openrouter.ai/rankings), as of 2026-11-01T09:28:31.358Z. Licensed under CC BY 4.0."
    },
    {
      "name": "OSV",
      "url": "https://osv.dev/",
      "signal": "security",
      "license": "CC BY 4.0 and Apache 2.0, by upstream database",
      "credit": "Data from OSV, including the GitHub Advisory Database, PyPI Advisory Database and OpenSSF Malicious Packages. We count entries and publish the results."
    },
    {
      "name": "SEC filings for outsourcing companies",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/search-filings/edgar-application-programming-interfaces",
      "signal": "outsourcing",
      "license": "US government public data",
      "credit": "Revenue and employees from filings on SEC EDGAR."
    },
    {
      "name": "pwn.watch",
      "url": "https://pwn.watch/",
      "signal": "security",
      "license": "No license published",
      "credit": "Incident data from pwn.watch by @thekitze. We count records and publish our own analysis."
    },
    {
      "name": "Render Status",
      "url": "https://status.render.com/",
      "signal": "outages",
      "license": "No data license published",
      "credit": "Counts derived from the public Render status page."
    },
    {
      "name": "SEC EDGAR",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/edgar/sec-api-documentation",
      "signal": "revenue",
      "license": "US government data",
      "credit": "Data from SEC EDGAR filings. The SEC has not reviewed or endorsed this site or its results."
    },
    {
      "name": "Sentry Status",
      "url": "https://status.sentry.io/",
      "signal": "outages",
      "license": "No data license published",
      "credit": "Counts derived from the public Sentry status page."
    },
    {
      "name": "Stack Exchange API",
      "url": "https://stackoverflow.com/",
      "signal": "stack-overflow",
      "license": "API Terms of Use, with attribution",
      "credit": "Source: Stack Exchange Network, Stack Overflow, through the Stack Exchange API."
    },
    {
      "name": "Stack Overflow Developer Survey",
      "url": "https://survey.stackoverflow.co/2025/ai",
      "signal": "sentiment",
      "license": "ODbL 1.0",
      "credit": "Stack Overflow Developer Survey 2025, survey.stackoverflow.co. Survey data licensed under ODbL 1.0."
    },
    {
      "name": "BEA and BLS information sector data",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RVAI",
      "signal": "tech-output",
      "license": "Public domain, citation requested",
      "credit": "U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Value Added by Industry: Information [RVAI], and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees, Information [USINFO], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Not endorsed or certified by BEA."
    },
    {
      "name": "Uneed",
      "url": "https://www.uneed.best/",
      "signal": "product-launches",
      "license": "No data license published",
      "credit": "Counts derived from the public Uneed sitemap."
    },
    {
      "name": "Zoom Status",
      "url": "https://www.zoomstatus.com/",
      "signal": "outages",
      "license": "No data license published",
      "credit": "Counts derived from the public Zoom status page."
    }
  ]
}